作　　者： (杨朝慧）; (文晓巍）;

机构地区： 华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处： 《消费经济》 2017年第4期12-19,共8页

摘　　要： 基于我国城乡居民食品消费的历史数据,本文总结了二十一世纪以来我国食品消费结构的变化及主要特征,并运用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)对食品消费结构进行了实证分析和趋势预测,在此基础上得出了食品消费结构变迁对我国农业产业发展的启示,以期能够为进一步优化我国农业产业结构和促进农业产业转型升级提供一定借鉴。本文认为,我国农业产业的转型发展必须要顺应食品消费结构的变化趋势。 Based on the historical data of urban and rural households food consumption in China, this paper firstly sums up the main features of food consumption structure change from the 21st century, then applies the empirical analysis and makes predictions by using Extend Linear Expenditure System model （ELES model）, next obtains some enlightenments to agricultural industry development of China in order to provide reference for optimizing agricultural structure and promoting industrial restructuring. It is suggest that the transformation of agricultural industrialization must be accorded to trends of food consumption.

关 键 词： 食品 消费结构 模型 农业产业转型