作　　者： (郭君平）; (曲颂）;

机构地区： 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处： 《农林经济管理学报》 2017年第4期539-549,共11页

摘　　要： 以我国5省10县1 000户农户调研数据为基础,分析农民政治参与"态度-行为"逻辑关系的形成和转变状况,发现农民及其异质群体政治参与态度与行为之间呈低度相关,皮尔逊相关系数均未超过0.35,各群体中政治参与态度与行为自洽的人数占比集中在50%左右且两极分化,相差近1倍。研究表明,大多数农民异质群体表现出的政治参与态度均不完全决定或难以直接、精准预测其实际行为;尽管如此,除贫困与非贫困农民外,男性、汉族和东部农民政治参与态度的行为可预测性依序显著高于女性、少数民族以及中西部农民;总体上,农民政治参与态度与行为自洽、混沌或背离的概率主要受个体特征、经济因素、环境因素和主观因素等多方面影响且存在区域、群体性差异,但更多取决于知悉政治活动时间、村干部或村民代表身份、就业地点以及误工补贴。 Based on the survey data of 1,000 farm households in 10 counties of 5 provinces,this paper analyzes the formation and transformation of the logical relationship between farmers' political participation attitude and behavior. It finds that farmers ' political participation attitude and their heterogeneous groups are weakly related to their behavior withall Pearson correlation coefficients no higher than 0.35; that the proportions of farmers' attitudes and behaviors consistent among the various groups are concentrated in about 50% with apparent polarization.The research shows that most farmers' political participation attitude incompletely determine or inaccurately predict their actual behavior in heterogeneous groups; However,except for the poverty stricken and non-poverty stricken farmers,the predictability of the behavior of men,Men and farmers in East China in terms of political participation attitude is significantly higher than that of women,minorities,and farmers in Mid and West China.In general,the probabilities of farmers' political participation attitude and behavior consistency,chaos or opposition are mainly affected by individual characteristics,economic factors,environmental factors and subjective factors.That is to say,regional and group differences exist.Besides,such factors also play a vital role as farmers' knowledge about political activity time,their identity as village cadre or villager representative,their employment location and allowance.

关 键 词： 农民 政治参与 态度 行为关系 影响因素 异质群体