作 者: (罗成); (李润滋); (许勤勤); (熊萍); (刘言训); (薛付忠); (许青); (李秀君);
机构地区: 山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计系,济南250012
出 处: 《中华流行病学杂志》 2017年第9期1218-1221,共4页
摘 要: 目的分析2012年和2014年流行性腮腺炎(腮腺炎)流行特征,探讨山东省2剂次含腮腺炎成分疫苗(Mucv)接种的预防效果。方法在一定模型假定基础上,结合相关文献设置合理参数,构建状态空间模型,利用迭代滤波对模型进行参数估计。结果2012年和2014年托幼及学生人群基础再生数(R。)分别为4.49(95%CI:4.30~4.67)和2.50(95%CI:2.38—2.61)。结论状态空间模型能够很好地描述腮腺炎传播过程;山东省实行2剂MuCV能够有效降低腮腺炎在人群中的传播;托幼和学生是实现腮腺炎进一步控制的重要人群,应进一步提高2剂次MuCV接种率。 Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results The basic reproduction number (R0) for children in schools was 4.49 (95% CI: 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95%CI: 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Conclusions Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.