作　　者： (刘莉）; (杨永康）;

机构地区： 山西职业技术学院建筑工程系,山西太原030006

出　　处： 《施工技术》 2017年第17期126-130,共5页

摘　　要： 考虑涉水古滑坡岩土体参数复杂性、随机性特征,以贵州某古滑坡为研究实例,引入基于Monte-Carlo随机数法的滑坡可靠度计算方法,分别建立Bishop法、瑞典条分法、简布法和剩余推力法对应极限状态方程,并采用该4种方法分别计算桐梓河该涉水古滑坡的可靠度和复活概率,同时,对4种方法评价结果进行综合分析,最终确定该古滑坡的整体复活概率状况;最后,对造成该古滑坡复活滑动的模拟次数、模型概型、变异性等因素进行敏感性分析。 Considering the complexity and randomness of wading ancient landslide failure method was adopted into this study. Taking an ancient landslide in Guizhou Province for example, on the basis of the analysis formation mechanism and the characteristics of distribution parameters, the Monte-Carlo simulation was carried out to establish the corresponding limit equations by Bishop method, Swedish slice method, Janbu method and residual thrust method respectively. According to the results from four limit state equations, the reliability and probability of failures were evaluated systematic, and the state of stability of the ancient landslide was also discussed in detail. Furthermore, the sensitivity factors to the total stability of the landslide such as the number of simulation, the characteristics of model and the variability were compared comprehensively.

关 键 词： 滑坡 古滑坡 随机数法 复活概率 数值模拟 边坡稳定性