作　　者： (宋雨婷）;

机构地区： 河海大学公共管理学院,南京210098

出　　处： 《湖北农业科学》 2017年第15期2975-2978,共4页

摘　　要： 非农用地增加且耕地缺乏有效保护对经济可持续发展是一大障碍。运用协整分析和Granger因果分析方法,利用江苏省1999～2014年的统计数据分析江苏省耕地非农化的内在机制。结果表明,经济增长是耕地非农化的单向Granger成因,两者存在协整关系;城镇化水平和耕地非农化存在协整关系且互为因果。应正确地认识与积极地看待耕地非农化问题,加强耕地保护,集约利用土地,转变经济增长方式,实现土地可持续利用和经济可持续发展的良性循环。 The increase of non-agricultural land and the lack of effective protection of arable land can be a obstacle to the sustainable development of the economy. Method of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test were employed. According to the statistical data of Jiangsu Province in 1999～2014,the internal mechanism of cultivated land conversion is studied.Results show that economic development is a unilateral Granger cause of non-agricultural land quantity and a co-integration relation has been found between them. Urbanization is a multilateral Granger cause of non-agricultural land quantity and has a co-integration relation with it. We should take a right and positive attitude toward the problems, protect arable land,use land intensively and change the mode of economic growth to achieve sustainable land use and sustainable economic development.

关 键 词： 经济增长 城镇化 耕地非农化 因果关系分析 江苏省