作　　者： (赵俊伟）; (尹昌斌）; (牛敏杰）;

机构地区： 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处： 《财贸研究》 2017年第6期47-57,共11页

摘　　要： 运用多指标综合评价模型测度2007—2014年中国各省区农业生态文明发展水平,使用空间Moran's Ⅰ指数和两种收敛性模型深入分析中国农业生态文明发展水平的动态变化、空间集聚和收敛性问题。研究发现:中国农业生态文明发展水平呈现波动性增长态势,在区域层面上,东中部地区差距逐渐消除,西部地区与东中部地区差距较大,但西部地区增速最快,在省域层面上,各省区农业生态文明发展水平参差不齐,发展水平较高的省区较多分布于东中部地区,而发展水平较低的省区较多分布于西部地区;通过Moran's Ⅰ指数检验发现中国农业生态文明发展水平存在较为显著的空间集聚效应,发展水平较高省区的辐射带动作用将使区域间的差距不断缩小;收敛性分析表明各省区的农业生态文明发展水平具有显著的收敛性和趋同性。 This article uses multi - index comprehensive evaluation system method to calculate the agri- cultural eco -civilization level （AECL） of the provinces in China from 2007 to 2014, and uses space Mo- ran＇s I index and two kinds of convergence model to analyze the dynamic change and spatial agglomeration of the China AECL. Main results as follows： The China AECL takes on a volatility growth trend. From the regional perspective, the gap between the eastern China and middle China is dispelling gradually, however, it has a larger disparity between the western and eastern and middle regions in China, and the AECL of western China grows comparatively quickly. From the provincial perspective, provinces with high level are assembled in eastern and middle China, and on the contrary, those with low level are assembled in western China. The general Moran＇s I index test shows an increasing spatial agglomeration effect among Chinese regional AECL. The AECL differentials will be diminishing by the influence of radiation in high level provincial district. Analysis of convergence shows that it takes on a trend of the steady convergence in China＇s AECL.

关 键 词： 农业生态文明 空间集聚 空间 指数 收敛效应