作　　者： (雷建锋）;

机构地区： 外交学院,北京100037

出　　处： 《东北亚论坛》 2017年第5期31-45,共15页

摘　　要： 核武器的出现使大国战争再无完全的胜利者。地缘经济竞争日益取代了哥伦布时代以来地缘政治竞争的优势地位,战后地区主义的蓬勃发展就是这种时代趋势的反映。"一带一路"是在欧亚权力对比和中国在东亚地区的地位发生有利于中国的根本变化的情况下中国政府提出的洲际地区主义合作倡议,其实质是一个经济地区主义合作机制,因此解决不了洲际安全问题,更不可能"超越"传统的地缘政治。对"一带一路"实质、局限、目标与效用评判标准均需细致的分析与界定,才能避免出现对其评价简单随意的倾向。地区主义与地区化应该彼此推进、相互为用,政府主导的地区主义必须以本地区的地区性水平为基础。中国应该塑造有利于"一带一路"发展的安全环境,从而打破"一带一路"沿线地缘政治的羁绊,推动其顺利发展。"一带一路"需要使长期愿景与阶段性目标、国家实力与政策设计、中国的主观愿望和沿线国家的需求相协调。 The emergence of nuclear weapons makes complete winner in wars among great power war impossible.The dominant position of geopolitical competition since Columbus era has been replaced by geoeconomic competition and the vigorous development of postwar regionalism is the reflection of this trend of the times.Belt and Road Initiative is an intercontinental regional economic cooperation initiative proposed by Chinese government in the context of both the power distribution between Asia and Europe and the status of China in East Asia has changed fundamentally in favor of China.Its essence is an economic regionalism,so it can't solve the problem of intercontinental security issues,thus it is unlikely to'transcend'traditional geopolitics in Eurasia.The limitations,goals,effectiveness,and the evaluation criteria of Belt and Road Initiative should be clearly defined and analyzed carefully to get rid of the carelessness and simplification tendency of the evaluation about it.Regionalism and regionalization should advance to each other and government-led regionalism must be based on the level of the regions of Eurasia.China should shape the security environment conducive to the development of the initiative to break the bonds of geopolitics to it.Belt and Road Initiative requires coordinating long-term vision and stage objectives,national strength and policy design,China's subjective aspirations and the needs of countries along the belt and road.

关 键 词： 一带一路 地缘政治与地缘经济 地区主义 中国洲际外交 跨地区治理