作　　者： (韩建伟）;

机构地区： 上海外国语大学中东研究所,上海200083

出　　处： 《阿拉伯世界研究》 2017年第5期16-31,共16页

摘　　要： 伊朗自遭受制裁以来的主要经济发展指标表明,外部制裁对伊朗经济的打击是有限的。但2012年后,严厉的国际制裁一度成为阻碍伊朗经济发展的首要因素。2015年伊核全面协议达成后,伊朗经济呈现出诸多积极特征,但主要归功于鲁哈尼政府在解禁有利形势下推进改革的结果。事实上,伊朗经济的恢复和增长并没有达到预期,凸显了深化经济体制改革的必要性。受伊斯兰革命后国内政治意识形态和地缘政治等复杂因素的影响,伊朗的经济改革将是一个漫长且充满挑战的过程。未来伊朗能否实现经济的高速增长主要取决于政府推进经济体制改革和继续改善国际环境的成效。在此背景下,"一带一路"倡议有望在伊朗面临更大的机遇。 The main economic development indicators since the nuclear sanction showed that the external sanctions had limited impact on Iran's economy.However,the strict international sanction was once the most important factor to hinder the economic development in Iran after 2012.Since signing the comprehensive agreement in 2015,Iran's economy has demonstrated many positive features,which were the main results of Rouhani administration propelling reform under the favorable situation of lifting the ban.However,the economic recovery and growth did not meet expectation,implementing the necessary of deepening the economic institutional reform.Influenced by complex factors such as domestic political ideology and geopolitics since Islamic Revolution,economic reform will be a long and challenging process in Iran.The rapid development of Iran's economy will depend on the results of promoting the economic institutional reform and improving the international environment in the future.Under the background of Iran's developing economy urgently,China's'Belt and Road'Initiative is expected to get more opportunities in Iran.

关 键 词： 制裁 伊朗 经济改革 一带一路