作　　者： (盛叶文）; (朱云）; (陶谨）; (陈享华）; (刘可旋）; (王书肖）; (朱振华）; (危浩）; (袁颖枝）;

机构地区： 华南理工大学环境与能源学院,广东省大气环境与污染控制重点实验室,广州510006

出　　处： 《环境科学学报》 2017年第9期3306-3315,共10页

摘　　要： 东莞是珠三角O_3污染最严重的城市,使用RSM/CMAQ(曲面响应模型)法分析了珠三角区域人为排放的NO_x和VOCs对东莞市O_3浓度变化源贡献.2014基准年分析结果表明,扣除模型域外区域传输及天然源排放对O_3本底浓度贡献(41.00%)后,东莞本地VOCs排放对O_3贡献最大(18.50%),珠三角区域NO_x减排率>13%时可持续降低东莞市O_3浓度.进一步使用ABa CAS-SE(空气污染控制成本效益与达标评估系统)对2017、2020、2025东莞市3个未来年O_3污染控制情景进行了费效评估.评估结果显示,NO_x和VOCs控制比例相对较低的2017年控制情景人体健康效益/区域控制成本比约为1.1;而控制比例相对较高的2025年东莞O_3达标情景效益成本比仅为0.1.这说明,在高减排率情景下,以末端治理为主的控制措施经济可行性较差,需综合采取产业/能源结构调整、清洁生产等措施实现NO_x和VOCs的大比例减排,实现东莞O_3的稳定达标.今后将进一步研究NO_x和VOCs减排对PM_(2.5)环境浓度及健康效益影响,开展多目标污染物协同控制费效评估. Dongguan is one of the most ozone-polluted city over the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region in China. We applied the advanced RSM/CMAQ （ Responds Surface Model/Community Multi-scale Air Quality） system to analyze the source contribution of anthropogenic emissions of NOx and VOCs for ambient O3 in Dongguan. The base-year analysis in 2014 indicates that local VOCs emissions has the largest contribution to 03 in Dongguan （18.50%） after excluding the background O3 contributions （41%） from transported regional emissions outside model domain and the natural sources. The emission reduction of NOx in the PRD can further lower the ambient O3 concentration in Dongguan when the reduction rate of NOx is greater than 〉 13% comparing to the NOx emissions in the base year of 2014. We further used the ABaCAS-SE （Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System-Streamlined Edition） to assess the cost-benefit of O3 pollution control scenarios in 3 future projection years, 2017, 2020 and 2025, in Dongguan. The simulation results show that the benefit/cost ratio （human health benefit over emissions control cost） is about 1.1 when the reduction rate of NOx and VOCs emissions is relatively low in 2017, and the rate will drop down to only 0.1 in 2025 when the control rates of NOx and VOCs become higher. The low rate of benefit/ cost means that terminal control technologies-based scenarios is not suitable for the higher emission reduction rates because of potential lower economic feasibility. The source control policies, such as adjusting the comprehensive industrial ＆ energy structure, popularizing cleaner procession technologies etc., should be promoted to reach the attainment goal of O3 national standard in Dongguan by 2025. However, the control benefit of PM2.5 due to NOx and VOCs emissions reduction is not considered in this study and further investigation is needed for multi-pollutant control strategies.

关 键 词： 臭氧污染 曲面响应模型 源贡献分析 污染控制 费效评估