作　　者： (李宾）; (王曼曼）; (孔祥智）;

机构地区： 北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029

出　　处： 《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2017年第5期46-55,共10页

摘　　要： 采用我国1978-2014年的数据,分析城镇化与农业现代化协调发展程度的变化趋势并提出对应的政策解释。通过构建城镇化和农业现代化的指标体系、采用主成分分析法确定各指标的权重后获得了城镇化水平与农业现代水平的变量数值,然后基于离差系数最小化协调度模型测算了城镇化与农业现代化的耦合度与协调发展度。结果表明:我国的农业现代化水平长期滞后于城镇化水平是制约城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的主要瓶颈;除了改革开放初期我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度存在短期的波动向下趋势以外,其余年份我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度总体呈现持续上升趋势;在不同的发展阶段,带动我国城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的动力机制不尽相同,而且各阶段协调发展度的变化与我国的社会经济政策存在明显的周期性关联。 Based on the data from 1978to 2014.this paper analyzes the overall trend on urbanization and the coordinated development of agricultural modernization and its corresponding policy interpretation.This paper constructs index system of urbanization and agricultural modernization,determines the weight of each index by means of Principal Component Analysis,and then calculates the coupling degree and the coordinated development degree.The result shows that the chief bottleneck of restricting the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization was the development of agricultural modernization lagging behind urbanization for a long time;the coordinated development degree increased steadily during the sample period except for the early period of China’s reform and opening to the outside world;the dynamic mechanism of driving the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization was not the same in different development stages and there was obvious periodic correlation between the variation of coordinated development degree and the social and economic policies.

关 键 词： 城镇化 农业现代化 耦合度 协调发展