作　　者： (谭莹）; (周建军）; (何勤英）;

机构地区： 华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处： 《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》 2017年第5期20-27,共8页

摘　　要： 从猪肉价格"易涨难跌"的现象探寻棘轮效应的理论假说,分区域细化研究层面,通过滚动回归来反映猪肉价格棘轮效应的动态过程,并进行结构突变检验来分析棘轮效应出现的时间点。研究发现:替代品、成本价格及宏观经济的短期波动是猪肉价格棘轮效应产生的主要原因;棘轮效应存在区域上的同步性及时间上的突变性,并且近年来有逐步加强的趋势。政府的宏观调控政策的制订不能只选择猪肉价格暴涨时期,应根据猪肉价格变化时点进行灵活适当地调整,作好提前预警和综合防治,提高调控政策的有效性。 This paper explores the theoretical hypothesis of ratcheting effect from the phenomenon that pork price is'easy to rise and difficult to fall'and divides the region to refine the research level.The dynamic process of pork price ratcheting effects is reflected through the rolling regression,and the structural mutation test is used to analyze the time point of the ratcheting effects.The result shows that short-term fluctuations in substitutes,cost prices and macroeconomics are the main causes of pork price ratcheting effects.Ratcheting effect has the synchronization in the region and the breaks on the time,which has gradually strengthened recently.The government’s macro-control policies shouldn’t only choose the period in which pork prices are soaring,but they must be adjusted flexibly and appropriately according to the change of the price of pork.Therefore,it is necessary to make early warning and comprehensive control so as to improve the effectiveness of control policies.

关 键 词： 猪肉价格 棘轮效应 滚动回归 结构突变