作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

出　　处： 《财贸经济》 2013年第5期105-113,84共10页

摘　　要： 本文将物价变动和家庭非消费支出明确纳入了分析家庭消费行为的理性预期—持久收入分析框架，构建了一个在物价变动环境下居民家庭消费跨期优化的理论模型，在此基础上按收入等级分类的住户调查伪面板数据对中国城镇居民家庭的消费行为进行计量分析。理论和实证分析的结果表明：影响中国城镇居民家庭消费支出的因素主要有上期消费的惯性作用、家庭实际可消费收入水平及其增长和通货膨胀的速度。近些年来，中国城镇居民家庭消费需求不足引致内需不振的最主要的原因是城镇居民家庭可消费收入增长慢于人均GDP的增长速度，其次是物价特别是住房价格的快速大幅上涨。 This paper builds a theoretical model of inter-temporal optimization of consumer by introducing price change and non-consumption expenditure to the rational expectation-permanent income analysis framework, and estimates econometric models of consumption behavior of urban residents in China based on this theoretical model by using pseudo panel data from household survey. The results of theoretical and empirical models show that the main factors affecting the consumption of urban residents are habit of consumption of previous period, real consumable income and its growth, and inflation. The main reason of the lack of consumption demand in recent years is that the growth of consumable income is slower than GDP per capita, and the second reason is the rapid increase of prices, especially housing prices.

关 键 词： 可支配收入 非消费支出 可消费收入 消费 通货膨胀

分 类 号： [F014.5]

领　　域： []