作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东金融学院

出　　处： 《中国工业经济》 2017年第1期43-61,共19页

摘　　要： 日益引起关注的地方债务问题是否会对经济波动产生不可忽视的影响，是一个很值得研究的问题。本文通过考察地方债务作用于经济波动的传导渠道，以及土地财政和政治周期对该渠道的影响．对这一问题展开研究，并利用中国2003--2013年31个省份的面板数据实证检验了地方债务与经济波动之间的关系。研究发现：地方债务波动确实会影响区域经济波动．伴随着地方债务规模变动幅度的增加，区域经济波动更加剧烈，并通过投资波动这条渠道冲击经济稳定，且这种影响具有持续性；土地财政对地方债务影响经济稳定具有推动作用：由于地方政府的举债行为具有政治周期性，使得地方债务的扩张速度具有急缓之分。进而影响了经济稳定。稳健性检验发现，地方政府的举债行为在一定程度上加剧了产能过剩问题．并对经济波动产生负面影响。因此．为了更好地发挥政府债务促进经济发展的积极作用．需要进一步规范通过地方政府举债进行政府投资的行为．防范地方政府盲目投融资的系统性风险。 There is a worth studying whether the growing concern of local debt have a noticeable influence on economic fluctuations. So the paper discussed this issue by researching the transmission channels of local debt affects economic fluctuations, as well as investigating the influences that land finance and political cycle impact of the transmission channels. Using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2013, the paper analyzes the relationship between local debt and economic fluctuation on the basis of expounding the theoretical mechanism of local debt impact on economic fluctuation.We come to the conclusion as follow. The volatility of local debt does affect the regional economic fluctuations, with the local debt scale increases, economic fluctuations are more intense, and through the investment fluctuations this channel impact on economic stability, and this effect is persistent; At the same time, the change of land finance has aggravated the effect of the transmission channels on economic stability, that is, land finance has a positive effect on the economic stability of local debts; In addition, the behavior of local government borrowing has a political cycle, so that the expanding rate of local debt has quick and slow, thereby affecting economic stability; To some extent, the behavior of local government to borrow debts can exacerbat the overcapacity problem, there is a negative impact on economic. Finally, the paper also discusses a number of policy issues.

关 键 词： 经济波动 地方债务 传导渠道 产能过剩

分 类 号： [F810]

领　　域： []