作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东省社会科学院

出　　处： 《南方金融》 2008年第12期17-20,共4页

摘　　要： 本文利用Pesaran提出的面板数据处理方法分析中国1996-2006年房地产价格,发现房地产价格和居民收入之间存在协整关系,但房价上涨速度快于居民收入增长速度,房地产市场具有"理性泡沫"特征。进一步的分析表明,城市化进程和空间扩散是短期内导致房价波动的两个重要因素,而利率的影响不显著。 This paper analyzes real estate prices in China from 1996 to 2006 using Pesaran＇s ＂panel data approach＂ . We find that there is a co-integrated relationship between real estate price and household income while the growth rate of real estate price is obviously greater than that of household income, which indicates the existence of ＂rational bubble＂ in real estate market. Further analysis shows that both urbanization and spatial expansion have a significant effect on real estate prices in the short run, while interest only has a slight effect.

关 键 词： 房地产价格 共同因子 面板协整 空间溢出