中文会议： 2006年中国国际金融年会论文集

会议日期： 2006-01-01

会议地点： 西安

主办单位： 清华大学中国金融研究中心

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处： 《2006年中国国际金融年会》

摘　　要： THIS PAPER EMPIRICALLY EXAMINES EFFECTS AND AUTONOMY OF CHINA’S MONETARY POLICY USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (VAR) AND GRANGER CAUSALITY METHODOLOGY. THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON QUARTERLY DATA FROM 1994 TO 2004 INDICATES THAT (1) THE AUTONOMY OF CHINA’S MONETARY POLICY MAINTAINS SYSTEMATICALLY IN THE INSPECTED PERIOD AND (2) MONEY STOCKS AND INTEREST RATES DO NOT GRANGER CAUSE REAL GDP AND CPI EXCEPT M0 GRANGER CAUSES CPI. THE REASON FOR THE WEAK EFFECTIVENESS OF CHINA’S MONETARY POLICY IS NOT THE EXTERIOR RESTRICTION WITH THE OLD PEGGED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM BUT THE INTERNAL FACTORS WHICH BLOCK THE PIPELINE OF MONETARY POLICY. ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ARE TO ACCELERATE THE REFORMS OF THECURRENT MANDATORY BANK SETTLEMENT SYSTEM AND PERFECT MANAGERIAL MECHANISM OF ENTERPRISE TO ENHANCE THE SENSITIVENESS OF MARKET AGENCIES TO POLICIES BUT NOT ABANDON THE POLICY TO MAINTAIN THE YUAN'S BASIC STABILITY.

分 类 号： [ZZ]

领　　域： [文化科学]