导　　师： 李玉萍

学科专业： 120201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中国石油大学华东

摘　　要： 产品分成合同模式是我国石油公司实施“走出去”战略,获取海外石油能源的重要国际石油合作模式。产品分成合同生产经营活动已经与国际石油经济发展融为一体。石油价格波动对合同者业绩影响巨大,如苏丹项目,每桶原油油价波动一美元,利润波动将达到上亿美元。因此,采取有效风险管理措施减少国际油价波动带来的冲击,降低合同者风险,保障合同者稳定的商业利润或现金流,成为摆在产品分成合同者面前的重大课题。 本文以产品分成合同者油价风险为研究对象,对油价波动给合同者带来的收入风险进行了识别,并用VaR方法对合同者面临的油价风险进行试探性的度量与量化,在风险量化的基础上,同时结合合同者自己的经验技术判定风险发生的概率,导出合同者油价风险分布结构图。根据油价风险分布结构图,选择与实施合同者油价风险管理策略。为了保障合同者油价风险管理顺利实施,提出保障措施。 本文共分为五个部分。第一部分介绍产品分成合同者价格风险管理研究背景和研究意义,以及本文主要研究内容及研究方法,并评述产品分成合同研究成果;第二部分概述产品分成合同模式、风险管理概念和流程以及风险转移套期保值金融衍生品工具的基本概念;第三部分分析产品分成合同油价风险的管理现状、存在问题和产品分成合同者管理油价风险的必要性;第四部分提出了合同者油价风险管理的目标,并对合同者油价风险进行了识别、度量、评价,以及提出在此基础上的规避风险策略选择以及具体风险转移策略;第五部分提出了保障合同者油价风险管理顺利运行发挥作用的保障措施。 本文力图在产品分成合同油价风险管理方面进行探索,旨在提高我国作为产品分成合同者的经济效益,同时,也为其他合同模式油价风险管理提供借鉴。 Production sharing agreement/(PSA/) is an very important model of international oilcooperation to help our country’s oil companies get oil from outside and help them carry outthe strategy of“going outside”. The production and management of Production SharingAgreement already fused together with the development of international oil economy. Thefluctuation of oil price has tremendous influence of the operator’s performance. Like Sudanprojection, if per barrel oil’s price fluctuated one dollar, the fluctuation of profit would behundred million dollars. So, taking effective measures to control oil price rick to reduce theshock of the fluctuation of international oil price, the operator’s financing risk, and to protectthe stability of operator’s cash flow, has become an important task of the PSA’s operator. This thesis takes the oil price risk of the PSA’s operator as discussing target, distinguishesthe risk, measures the risk by the method of VaR, at the same time ,combines operator’sexperience and technology to judge probability of the risk, and then, derivates the operator’srisk distribution structure chart. According to the chart, choose and carry out the operatingstrategies to manage the operator’s oil price risk. And, in the end, to make the operatingstrategies goes smoothly, point out some protecting methods. This thesis is composed by five parts. The first part introduced the background andimportance of managing the oil price risk of operator of PSA, and made a comment aboutresearch achievement of PSA. The second part introduced the knowledge of PSA, riskmanagement and the basic of derivatives. The third part analyzed the current management ofPSA’s oil price risk, existing problems and some inspirations from other companies related tooil. The forth part distinguished, measured and evaluated the oil price risk of the operator, andpointed out choose which find of tactics to avoid risk and specific measures. The fifth partpointed out some useful methods to protect the risk management smoothly. This thesis tried to search how to manage the oil price risk of PSA, for improving ourcountry’s oil companies’economic benefit as the operator of PSA. At the same time, hope thatit can provide some experience for other kinds of models of international oil cooperation.

关 键 词： 产品分成合同 油价风险管理 风险度量

分 类 号： [F416.22]

领　　域： [经济管理]