导　　师： 王幼松

学科专业： 081402

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 目前房地产业已经成为我国国民经济的重要产业。商业房地产也随着城市化的发展步伐迅速发展,而学术界对商业房地产研究不多,尤其对商业房地产租赁方面的研究更少。通过对租赁市场的分析和评估,可对未来商业地产的开发定位与策划提供指导,也有利于政府对商业房地产市场进行引导和有效监管。 本文回顾了商业房地产及其租赁市场的发展历程,初步了解了广州天河区商业房地产租赁市场的现状,分析其活跃程度,判断其发展状况与趋势。天河区商业房地产区域发展不均衡,大型商场过于集中;写字楼的梯度建设较差,中央商务区的辐射作用不明显。2008年,天河区商铺和写字楼平均租赁价格较2007年有所降低,分别为72.1元///(m2·月/)和51.2元///(m2·月/),租赁价格更趋于理性,房地产租赁市场供求关系比较平稳;商铺和写字楼的房价租金比均超过200,意味着投资收益率小于4/%,商业房地产市场存在一定程度的泡沫。借鉴现有关于Hedonic定价的理论方法和研究经验,以2008年度天河区商业房地产的租赁数据为基础,尝试构建了天河区商业租赁价格的Hedonic模型并对模型进行拟合分析,得出影响该地区商铺和写字楼租赁价格的主要因素。按照影响因子的大小排序,影响前者的主要因素为轨道交通、房屋面积、距离CBD的远近和人口密度等,影响权重分别为35.52/%、17.89/%、15.79/%和1.04/%;影响后者的主要因素为距离CBD的远近、轨道交通、房屋面积和人口密度等,影响权重分别为46.93/%、24.27/%、13.83/%和0.12/%。 另外,本文对天河区最典型的商业广场进行案例分析,横向对比了该商业广场与所在街道租金水平的差距,分析得出该商场成功的主要因素有优越的地理位置、完善的交通网络、理想的轨道交通、稳定的消费群体、有机的商圈内部配套组合和有层次的租赁搭配。而隐患有周边的商业地产项目复制建设较多、商业地产过度集中和交通压力等。最后,本文概括出天河区商业房地产的主要问题,并建议政府加强调控、管理和服务,加强基础设施和配套设施建设,引进先进商业理念;建议商业房地产企业立足自身条件,走特色发展的道路。希望本研究能为政府规划和开发商的市场决策提供参考与帮助。 Current real estate industry has become a pillar industry of the national economy.Commercial real estate developes rapidly with the pace of urbanization,and academic research of commercial real estate has just started,especially for commercial real estate leasing research.Based on the analysis and assessment of leasing market,it not only provides guidance for the development orientation and commercial real estate planning,but also is beneficial to the government for commercial real estate market and effective supervision. The dissertation reviews the development course of commercial real estate and its rental market,makes a preliminary understanding of the status in guangzhou tianhe,analyzes its active degree,development trend and judgment.Tianhe commercial real estate regional development is not balanced;large stores were over-concentrated;Office building's gradient construction is poor;the radiation effect of the central business district is not obvious. In 2008, the average rental prices of offices and shops are lower than in 2007, respectively for 72.1 yuan///(m2*month/) and 51.2 yuan///(m2*month/).The rental prices tend to be more rational.Real estate market supply and demand relation are smoothly.The ratios between selling price and rental price of shops and offices are both more than 200.It means the investment returns is less than 4/%,and there exists certain degree of foam in commercial real estate market.From the theory about Hedonic price existing methods and research experience,based on tianhe commercial real estate leasing data in 2008,the dissertation tries to build a Hedonic model of tianhe commercial leasing price,fitting the main factors that affect the region shops and offices rental prices. According to the size of the impact factor,the main factors that affect the former is the rail traffic,building area and distance of CBD and population density,etc,respectively weighs 35.52/%、17.89/%、15.79/% and 1.04/%;the main factors that affect the latter is distance of CBD,rail transportation, building area and population density,etc,respectively weighs 46.93/%、24.27/%、13.83/% and 0.12/%。 In addition,this dissertation views the most typical commercial plaza in tianhe on case analysis,transversely compares commercial plaza with the commercial square streets between rents,analysizes that the key success factors of the mall are advantageous geographical position,the transportation network,the ideal of the rail transit,the stability of consumer groups,organic combination of internal supporting and levels of leasing collocation.But there are disadvantages including surrounding commercial real estate projects in commercial real estate,construction of more duplicate overly concentrated and traffic pressure,etc. Finally,this dissertation summarizes the main problems of tianhe commercial real estate,and suggests that the government to strengthen regulation and management and service,strengthen infrastructure and facilities construction, introduce business concept,and the commercial real estate enterprises to base on the condition of themselves,walk the characteristic development road.Hope this research can provide references and help for the government planning and the market decision of the developers.

关 键 词： 商业房地产 租赁 模型 商铺 写字楼

分 类 号： [F293.3]

领　　域： [经济管理]