导　　师： 申琪玉

学科专业： 081303

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 如今,房地产业已经成为我国市场经济重要的组成部分。作为一种高附加值的综合性产业,房地产业对经济的发展具有高度的敏感性,同时它又是一种高风险、高收益的产业,具有许多不确定性,这些不确定性对房地产开发的成败起着决定性的作用。因此要避免房地产开发风险,就需要在投资决策以前科学地、最大限度地分析和预测风险,对未来可能发生的风险状态、影响因素和变化趋势做出分析和判断,为风险应对决策和管理奠定基础。只有对风险做出科学预测,预先采取有效的措施,才能做到有的放矢,将风险控制在最低限度,提高开发经济效益。 本文从开发商的角度出发,在对风险分析过程进行分析研究的基础上,探讨了房地产开发项目风险管理的有关问题;文章对房地产开发各阶段的风险进行风险识别、风险评估、风险应对的研究。结合房地产项目特点,列举风险识别的方法,比较了风险评估方法的优劣,描述了房地产项目的风险应对措施。 最后在项目案例分析中,结合项目的具体情况,应用风险管理的理论,运用盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析,对项目的风险进行定量定性的风险识别、风险评估,有针对性地提出风险应对措施和项目建议。 Now,the real industry has become the main part of Chinese economy. As a high value-added comprehensive industry, the real estate industry is quite sensitive to the economy development, meanwhile it is a high risk and high profit industry with lots of uncertainties, which play a key role in the real estate development. Therefore, for avoiding the risks when develop real estates, it is essential to foresee the risks scientifically before investment, analyze the influence factors, and determine the risk trends. By this way, the real estate enterprises can take effective measures in advance to control the risks to a minimum range and increase the investment yield. On the basis of analyzing the general theories of risks management, the thesis discuss the related to the risks management of real estate projects. The paper makes a deep research to the risk of real estate processes, including risk identification, risk evaluation, risk response. The paper also enumerates the methods of risk identification, compares the methods of the risk evaluation, describes the measures of the risk response. At last, the thesis take a project to do the example analyzing. During the procedure of analyzing, the paper use the analysis method of profit and loss’s balance and sensitivity to carry on the risk identification and the risk evaluation to the quantity of the project risk, etc.

关 键 词： 风险 风险分析 风险识别 风险评估 不确定性分析

分 类 号： [F293.3]

领　　域： [经济管理]