导　　师： 朱剑飞

学科专业： 050302

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 电视广告经营是电视媒体经营的核心内容,到目前为止,广告收入仍然是电视媒体创收的主要来源。每年的广告创收指标是广告部门开展业务、实现创收的奋斗目标,且与广告部门的业绩考核紧密相连,过高或者过低都不利于激励机制发挥作用。目前电视广告创收指标的制定存在主观性、随意性,因而无法保证创收指标的合理性和科学性,究其根本在于决策机制的不完善。 我国电视广告经营的体制机制、发展历程、经营模式是电视广告经营决策机制形成的土壤,在对其进行梳理的过程中,可以归纳出决策机制的现状及存在的问题,即:权力结构既集中又模糊,缺乏监督;产权关系模糊,责权利关系不清晰;缺乏有效的决策支持系统。因此,在体制保障层面应该:加快机构调整,以明确决策主体,理清责权利关系;建立新型企业法人治理结构,以实现广告经营的市场主体地位,满足科学决策机制的建立前提;建立决策支持系统,为科学决策提供信息支持,保证决策的科学性。除了合理体制的保障,决策还要讲究科学方法,在系统的分析其影响因素及各因素之间的相互作用关系的基础上,采取定性评估预测和定量模型预测结合的方法,尝试将模糊数学中的模糊综合评判模型应用于对电视台未来一年广告创收能力的评判上,以此为制定未来一年广告创收指标提供参考模型,同时结合定性预测评估预测中的群体讨论法与德尔菲法对未来一年的广告经营额进行预测,从而为决策者制定广告创收指标提供决策参考。 Advertising is the core of TV media management, and until now advertising revenue is still the main source for TV media. The advertising index each year is not only the goal for the advertising department to launch business and achieve revenue targets, but has a close link to the performance evaluation so that it is not good for the excitation mechanism to play its role if the advertising index is too high or too low. The advertising income index nowadays can not guarantee the rationality and scientificity of the profit index because of its subjectivity and arbitrariness in the process of formation. In China, the formation of the decision-making mechanism of the TV media management depends on its system and mechanism, history and business model. Such a series of status quos and problems as intensive but vague power structure, the lack of supervision, not clear property rights and clear responsibility relationship, and shortage of decision support system can be found when sorting out the TV media management system. As a result, various measures should be taken to solve these problems. In terms of system security, restructuring should be speeded up in order to clear the decision-making body and clarify the responsibility relationship. New cooperate governance system should be established to be make the market be the player in advertising management and be the premise for scientific decision-making mechanism. Decision-making support system should also be established to provide information for the scientific decision and to ensure its scientificity. Apart from the reasonable protection system, it is also important to make decision in a scientific way. Based on an analysis of the factors influencing the advertising revenue as well ad the interaction between the factors , this thesis proposes a decision-making method with the combination of qualitative evaluation prediction and quantitative model prediction. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied to estimate television advertising revenue capacity in the coming year. With qualitative evaluation prediction method—group discussion and Delphi method, advertising revenue in the coming year will be predicted,which could provide reference for decision makers to make the revenue index for the next year.

关 键 词： 电视广告 创收指标 决策机制

分 类 号： [F713.8 G229.2-F]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]