导　　师： 田秋生

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 房价上涨是近年来社会广泛关注的一个热点问题,房价上涨的持续性以及房价过快上涨的危害是大家关注的重点。本文正是基于这样的背景,选取房地产业与经济的切合点,即房地产价格作为研究对象,以房价供求形成机制为出发点,研究分析房价变动的影响因素,现阶段我国房价上涨的特点及其治理对策。 首先,分析房地产市场的需求、供给曲线,需求曲线一般表现为一条右下方倾斜的曲线,供给曲线经推理表现为一条右上方倾斜的曲线。市场上的房产均衡价格是由房屋供给曲线和房屋需求曲线的交点决定的。房屋供给方为开发商,房屋需求方包括房屋消费者和房屋投资者。投资者对房屋的购买具有不同于消费者的显著特点,价格越高,上涨越快,投资者购买意愿越强。一旦房价涨幅趋缓,投资者就会离开房产市场,另寻投资机会。房产市场上出现大量的投资者,是近年来我国房产市场上的新现象。为了研究包含投资者在内的房屋需求曲线及其对房屋均衡价格的影响,本文分析了房产市场的四种均衡类型及相应的房价走势:/(1/)消费者主导的短期均衡;/(2/)消费者主导的长期均衡;/(3/)投资者主导的短期均衡;/(4/)投资者主导的长期均衡。笔者运用我国1998至2009年间房价与租金同比增幅走势图进行了验证。其次,分别从需求和供给两个方面选取影响其上涨的因素进行分析。其中既包括长期因素,也包括由于现阶段我国体制变革而出现的特殊影响因素。影响需求的主要有人均收入水平提高等因素;影响供给的因素主要从房价的构成部分进行分析,有土地取得成本、开发管理成本等部分。以上两大方面因素的变动引起曲线发生左右平移,从而表现为房地产价格的上下波动。最后,在分析我国现阶段房价上涨的特点的基础上提出了治理现阶段房价上涨的措施:/(1/)增加住房有效供给;/(2/)抑制住房不合理需求;/(3/)加强市场的监督管理;/(4/)推出房地产价格指数期货品种。本文的研究成果对于正确看待当前的房地产市场状况具有一定的理论和实际意义,通过对房价形成机制和影响因素的分析,我们既要看到房价上涨的必然性,也要看到投资者介入以后导致的房价巨幅波动的可能性,从而端正对待房价上涨的态度,明确控制房价过快上涨的可操作性办法。 Increase of real estate prices has been a hot topic in recent years which caused great attentions from the whole society. The focus has been the continuity of real estate prices increasing and dangers of too fast price increasing. This article is based on the economic background,selecting the real estate industry and the economy to meet the point that is real estate prices as the research object, The thesis starts with principle of how real estate prices formed by demand and supply, research and analysis of the factors that affect price changes. Also it summarizes special features of real estate prices increasing in China and methods in controlling real estate prices increase. First of all,this article researches demands and supplies curve of the real estate market. The results show a tilt of the curve of the lower right corner. The performance of the supply curve by the reasoning for a tilt at the top right of the curve. The market price of property is decided by the point where supply curve and demand curve meet. Supplier of property is developer while buyer of property include both consumer and investor. Investor shows totally different buying tendency with consumer. The higher real estate price is maintained and the quicklier the real estate price is increasing, the more actively investor works. Once the increasing price of property tends to be stable, investor will look for other investment chances rather than property. It is a new phenomenon that there are a lot of property investors now in China property market. In order to study influences of property demand curve including investor's, the thesis analyze four different property price equilibriums and their related property price tendency, These are:1/)short-run equilibrium initiated by consumer; 2/)long-run equilibrium initiated by consumer; 3/) short-run equilibrium initiated by investor; 4/) long-run equilibrium initiated by investor. In last part of the chapter, the writer quotes a comprehensive statistic figures of property economic development from 1998 to 2009 in China to verify the long-run property price tendency. Secondly, it analysis the factors which are affecting the changes from selecting the demand and supply. It includes both the long-run factors and the unique factors which occur during the present innovation of system organization in China.The impact of demand factors: level of per capita income and other factors. The same factors which affect the supply of major component from the price analysis,the cost of land,part of the development costs etc. The above two factors caused the change occurred around curve shift,which reflected the fluctuating real estate prices. The thesis also clarifies how these factors influence the changes of property price. Finally, The thesis has quoted statistic figures over from National Statistic Bureau in the analysis of present property price changing. Four different kind of methods to control the increasing property price are proposed in the end of the thesis which are: 1/)Cost controlling and Increasing affordable housing; 2/)Satisfy house demand and restrain speculation;3/)Strengthen market supervision and management;4/)Publish Real-estate-price Index Futures; The result of the thesis is useful both theoretically and practically in analysis of present situation of property market. By analyzing the price deciding and influencing factors of property price, we can realize the inevitability of property price increasing and possibility of big price fluctuation caused by investors. We need to have a proper attitude towards to increase of property price and have practical methods to control the fast-increasing price. The analysis of the thesis is also applicable to start and stimulate an unpopular property market.

关 键 词： 房地产 住房市场 住房价格 治理措施

分 类 号： [F293.3]

领　　域： [经济管理]