导　　师： 任志远

学科专业： 070501

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 陕西师范大学

摘　　要： 本文基于人地系统关系协调的地学研究主题,在GIS技术支持下,选择关中地区的耕地指数综合测评、农业气候要素的空间栅格化与栅格尺度的农业气候生态适应性的综合评价,从农业可持续发展的视角对关中的农业可持续发展进行了综合研究。本文主要对关中地区粮食安全格局进行综合评价,同时从空间地统计分析的多角度进行空间分布格局的规律揭示,对关中地区的主要农业生态气候要素进行了空间栅格化处理,在实现的过程中,开创性的进行经度、纬度图层的栅格化处理,空间化的基础上,借助GIS软件平台和模糊数学的研究方法对其进行农业生态气候适应性的综合评价,最终得到栅格尺度的关中农业生态气候适应性空间分布格局图。在此基础之上,利用多指标综合的方法对关中地区的农业可持续发展进一步进行综合的测评研究,得出的以下主要结论。 ①基于人口-耕地-粮食系统的,区域农业基础承载力测评,通过长时间序列的耕地压力指数的分县测评和空间的地统计的空间自相关的统计分析：/(1/)关中地区的人口增长呈现一种分阶段的特征,增长率越来越小,1949—1976年关中地区的人口呈高速增长,从1949年748.08万人增加到1978年的1615.72万人,30年间净增加了近900万人。1978—1996年为人口增长的第二阶段,这一阶段较前一阶段的增长速率大大减小,人口数从1979年的1631.52万增长到1996年的2066.80万,17年间增加了近370万,1996年后人口增长的速率进一步放缓,但人口持续增加的趋势短时间内难以改变,截至2007年人口接近2400万。/(2/)关中地区的粮食生产总量,从1949年以来,呈现的是一种波动上升的趋势,在1960年有一个明显的波谷,1978年也存在一个低谷,在2000年的时候达到区域粮食生产的最大值。从1949年202.4852万吨增加到2006年的773.09万吨,粮食总产量增加了3倍多。/(3/)耕地面积的变化从1949年的2186.64千公顷增加到1957年的2299.187千公顷,由于建国初期,大量的土地资源进行整理,后备耕地资源转换为可耕地,1958年后耕地面积不断的减少,截止2007年耕地面积为1757.853千公顷。/(4/)关中地区自1949年以来实际的最小人均耕地面积总体上一直高于人均耕地面积,欲达到400kg的人均粮食消费水平,区域的耕地粮食产出压力一直存在。但总体的趋势最小人均耕地面积是随着耕地综合生产能力的提高不断的减小,但实际人均耕地面积不断减少,导致区域耕地压力的存在。最小人均耕地面积各个地区从1989年以来都不断呈不断减少的趋势,其中铜川市、渭南市的最小人均耕地面积最大。/(5/)耕地压力指数以及土资源承载力指数的空间集聚变现为：低低集聚的区较集中关中地区的中部地区,关中地区的咸阳西部各县,宝鸡的东中部的各县将是未来关中地区农业生产发展的重点关注的区域,陕西省应该基于足够的重视,加大农业生产投入与基础建设促进农业的发展。 ②基于农业气候生态适宜性模型测评。资源指数的空间分布格局为北低南高的空间格局,纬度地带性规律比较明显,效能指数的空间分布格局为中间高南北低的格局,山地的效能指数较高,山地立体农业的开发有待进一步加强,从整个农业气候资源的指数来看,总的格局为北高南低的空间格局,虽然资源指数与效能指数北部都较低,但是北部的光照条件较好,使得最终的利用系数的空间格局呈现了东北向西南减少的趋势,关中地区的农业生产布局应该充分利用北部的光照条件与南部的降水与湿度条件,因地制宜的进行农业的生产的空间布局,同时东北部的农业生产的水利设施进一部加强。 ③基于农业生态经济系统协调度测评模型,对关中地区及各地市的农业生态经济系统协调度进行综合测评。关中地区农业生态综合水平指数从1999年的0.52小幅增加到2001年的0.54,2002年出现一个较大的提高,到2004年出现下降的突变点,从0.65降到了2006年0.5的水平,之2006年之后再次呈现出小幅的上升,至2008年0.55,总体上表现出小周期的波动变化。关中地区的农业经济发展水平呈现一直上升的趋势,从1999年的0.14上升至2008年的0.72,每一年都处于增加的态势,这对于关中整个农业发展经济来说,是一件好事,农业农村经济的不断增强,对农村的脱贫与社会稳定具有重大的意义。关中地区社会系统水平总体上呈现一种波动上升的态势,渭南市的保持一种低水平的上升的趋势,在2008年的时候,各地区出现了下降。10a来关中地区的农业生态经济系统经历了由失调向协调方向/(“极度失调-低度协调-弱度失调”/)发展过程。关中地区农业生态-经济系统协调指数在0.6-0.7之间,整个地区呈现较好的发展趋势,但各个地市表现出不同的变话趋势。关中地区各地市经济-社会系统协调指数呈上升趋势,其中西安市和杨凌区协调水平较高。 基于以上结论,从战略的层面对关中地区的农业可持续发展提出了不同层面的发展战略,以期为未来关中地区的农业可持续的发展提供科学决策的依据。 Based on earth sciences' research theme of the relationship between man-land coordinate system,with GIS technical support, selecting the relevant area of cultivated land in the comprehensive evaluation index, agro-climatic factors of the space grid and grid-scale agro-climatic evaluation of ecological adaptation, This paper focused on the assessment of the pattern of food safety in Guanzhong area, and revealed the rule of the spatial distribution pattern from the standpoint of Spatial Geostatistics Analysis. The main mainly agricultural ecosystem climate elements in Guanzhong area was changed into raster format spatially. In this process, it is pioneering to change the longitude and latitude layers to raster layers.Based on spatial process, the assessment of climate suitability of the agricultural ecosystem was made by GIS software platform and Fuzzy mathematical methods, and finally got the spatial distribution patterns of the climate adaptability in grid scale. On this basis, using multi-index synthetic methods, the further integrated assessment research for the sustainable development of agriculture in Guanzhong was made, following main conclusions. ①Based on regional agricultural foundation bearing capacity assessment of population-land-food system, and the counties' evaluation of pressure index of cultivated land in long sequence and the spatial autocorrelation of t Spatial Geostatistics Analysis, the conclusions are as follows:/(1/) The population growth in Guanzhong area took on a kind of growth stages, and the growth rate was smaller and smaller. In 1949-1976, the population growed rapidl. The population has increased from 7480.8 thousand in 1949 to 1.61572 million in 1978, nearly 9000 thousand during the 30 years. From 1978 to 1996, it was the second stage of population growth, the growth rate in this stage is greatly reduced than the previous stage, the population growed from 1.63152 million in 1979 to 2.0668 million thousand in 1996, nearly 3700 thousand during the 17 years. In 1996, the population growth rate slow down in further, but the population continued the trend of increase and hard to change in a short time. Up to 2007, the population was nearly 2.4 million./(2/) 2/)In Guanzhong area, the grain production volume was a kind of rising trend of fluctuations since 1949.An obvious trough in 1960 and 1978, while in 2000, the regional grain production.reached a maximum. The grain output increased by more than three times from 2024.852 thousand tons in 1949 to7730.9 tons in 2006. /(3/) Cultivated area changed from 2186.64 thousand hectares in 1949 to 2299.187 thousand hectares in1957. Due to large amounts of land consolidation at the founding, the cultivated land resource reserved was converted to cultivated land area of arable land. After 1958, cultivated area reduced constantly.Up to 2007, arable land was 1757.853 thousands of hectares. /(4/) Since 1949, the actual per capita minimum total cultivated area in Guanzhong area has been higher than average per capita cultivated area. To achieve 400kg per capita consumption level of grain, the grain output pressure of cultivated land always exist. Minimum per capita cultivated land of each region since 1989 was continuously continuously decreasing. In Tongchuan city and Weinan city, the minimum per capita cultivated land area was largest. /(5/) The spatial agglomeration of cultivated land pressure index and land resource capacity index was that low value of agglomeration concentrated in the central region in Guanzhongon area. In the western counties of Xianyang city, the eastern and middle counties of Baoji city in Guanzhong region will be the important region to be concerned in the future development of agricultural production of Guanzhong region. Shaanxi province should pay attention to this, and increases input of agricultural production and infrastructure construction to promote the development of agriculture. ②Based on the agricultural climate ecological suitability model test, the spatial distribution pattern of resources index was low in the north and high in the south., so the latitude zonal rule was obvious. The spatial distribution pattern of efficiency index was high in the middle and low in the north and south. The efficiency index was higher in hills, and the mountain stereo agriculture development needed further strengthened. From the perspective of agricultural climate resource index,the general pattern was high in the north to low in the south. Although resources index and efficiency index in the north was low, but the northern illumination condition was good, and the final spatial pattern of utilization coefficient was a decreasing trend from the northeast to southwest region.The agricultural production layout in Guanzhong region should make full use of the northern illumination condition and the southern rainfall and humidity conditions, and adjust the spatial layout of agricultural production to local conditions. Meanwhile, the water conservancy facilities of agricultural production in the northeast should be strengthened. ③Based on the agricultural ecological and economic system coordination degree evaluation model, the coordination degree of agricultural ecological and economic system in Guanzhong region was evaluated comprehensivly. The agricultural ecological comprehensive index in Guanzhong region increased slightly from 0.52 in 1999 to 0.54 in 2001. In 2002, there are a large increase in 2004, and fall suddenly in 2004. After 2006, it showed a small rise again, until to 0.55 in 200. So it changed fluctuation in a small cycle.overall. The agricultural economy development level have been rising in Guanzhong region, from 0.14 in 1999 to 0.72 in 2008,and in the situation of increase every year. It was a good thing for the agricultural economy development in Guanzhong. The rural economy growing was significant for the rural getting rid of poverty and social stability. The general level of social system in Guanzhong area rised fluctuatly. In 2008, the level of all regions has declined. The agricultural ecological economic system experienced the development process from disorder to coordination in Guanzhong region /(extreme disorder-low coordination-weak disorder/). The coordinate index of the agricultural ecological economic system in Guanzhong region was between 0.6-0.7, and the development tendency in the whole area was good, but each prefectures showed different trends. The coordinated index of economy and society systems in all the cities of Guanzhong region was an upward trend, and the coordinated levels in Xian and Yangling regions were higher. Based on the conclusions above, the development strategy of different levels was put forward for the sustainable development of agriculture in Guanzhong region from the strategy aspect, so as to provide scientific decision-making basis.for the future of agricultural sustainable development in this region.

关 键 词： 农业可持续发展 粮食安全 农业气候生态适宜性 关中地区

分 类 号： [F320]

领　　域： [经济管理]