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基于数据挖掘的房地产消费预测研究
Real Estate Consumption Prediction Research Based on Data Mining

导  师: 刘发贵;杨春晖

学科专业: 081202

授予学位: 硕士

作  者: ;

机构地区: 华南理工大学

摘  要: 随着我国经济的高速发展,近年来我国房地产得到了飞速的发展,房地产已经发展成为我国的支柱产业,房地产业除了受到广大老百姓的关注外,也得到了各项前沿技术的支持,因此房地产信息技术的应用发展比较快。房地产市场调研是房地产开发企业为了及时作出正确的投资决策和营销决策,而客观、系统地收集、整理、研究、分析房地产市场有关资料信息,将其转化为决策所需信息的工作过程。市场调研在房地产行业的应用已经不再局限于数据采集和简单的归纳、数据分析,更高的决策支持必须建立在更大量的“数据——信息——知识”的基础上。数据挖掘作为一种系统的检查和理解大量数据的工具,能有效地帮助房地产企业从市场调研所得的数据中提取有价值的信息。数据挖掘被引入到房地产市场调研领域,并日益受到重视。 随着竞争的加剧,房地产企业要想在竞争中取得优势,在项目的开发前期,必须对价格、产品等进行可行性研究,也就是开展房地产消费预测工作。一般房地产企业主要通过做一定数量的市场问卷调查并进行简单的数据分析来大致确定消费者的需求情况,分析上比较单调且所使用的分析手段有限,主要还是使用计量经济方法和系统工程的理论,缺乏与其他因素的关联性分析,而且使用数据挖掘技术来分析的不多,也没有形成一个完整的模型。 本文从数据挖掘在房地产市场调研中的消费者特性研究价值入手,分析数据挖掘在房地产项目开发前期的消费者分析调研中的应用,用实例分析研究,以通用类数据挖掘软件SPSS为工具,结合关联分析、统计分析、聚类分析等数据挖掘理论和方法,对在房地产消费者调研中所收集的数据进行分析,提取有价值的信息,实际例子主要使用国内及省内近年来的一些房地产发展数据、超过600份的消费者调查问卷来进行分析。通过本文的实例分析,探讨一套运用数据挖掘技术,并行之有效的针对房地产消费预测的系统及模型,为房地产项目前期可行性分析提供良好的支持。 Along with the economy develop in our country, the real estate has got a flying progress and become the mainstay industry. Besides focused by ordinary people, real estate got many supports from advanced technic as well. And the real estate information technic is one of the technics which have quickly development. In order to support real estate company to make decision on investment and distribution correctly and timely, marketing research of real estate is important, which is the process of collecting//coordination//study//analyse real estate’s marketing information in external and systematical, then transfer to the input of decision-making. The application of markeing research is not limited in data collection //simply conclusion and data analyse in real estate industry currently. For higher decision-making support, it must basic on larger“data-information-knowledge”. Data mining, to be the tool of mass data checking and understanding systematically, can help real estate company extract the value information from the data collected by marketing research. Data mining has been introduced to marketing research area of real estate and become more and more important. As the competition become vehement, If real estate company want to keep its advantage in a competitive environment, it must study the possibility of the cost and product at the very beginning of project, i.e. to develop the real estate consumption forecast. General real estate company will analyse the data from some marketing questionnaire simply to ensure the demand of consumer. This analyse, which still mainly use the measure enconimy method and systematic theory, is too limited and simple. Because it lacks the relating analyse with other factor and seldom use the data mining technic, even lacking a completely matrix analyse. In the thesis, it begins with value of data mining in consumer’s characteristic study of real estate marketing research.of the beginning of real estate. To analyse the application of data mining in consumer’s study area at the beginning of real estate project and basic on amount of real sample study, it helps to investigate the data collecting from real estate consumer’s survey. Extracting value information, it combine the method of data mining software /(SPSS/) and some data mining theory and method such as relationship analyse// Stat.analyse//clusering analyse…etc. Real sample included the real estate development data of our country or city recently and over 600 consumer’s survey. Hope to come out a system model that can effectly forecast real estate consumption by data mining technic to support the possibility analyse of real estate in prophase.

关 键 词: 关联分析 数据挖掘 房地产

分 类 号: [F293.3 TP311.13]

领  域: [经济管理] [自动化与计算机技术] [自动化与计算机技术]

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