导　　师： 陈海声;罗东晓

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 我国天然气蕴藏量丰富,但目前国内天然气供需矛盾较为突出,预计到2010年,我国天然气在一次能源消费总量中所占比重将从目前的不到3/%增加到10/%。仅仅依靠国内资源,在时间上、数量上和分布上难以满足市场需求,适时、适量、合理的进口国外天然气作为国内资源的补充,是非常必要的。 我国政府目前正在制订天然气产业的中长期发展规划,以进一步加快天然气勘探、开发和利用,优化能源结构,维护国家能源安全。为确保我国天然气产业的可持续发展,政府对发展天然气产业总的原则是:“立足国内,利用海外,西气东输,北气南下,海气登陆,就近供应”。据有关资料分析,2010年我国将进口液化天然气1900万吨,2015年将达3300万吨。 本文通过对国际LNG市场和国内LNG市场的现状分析和未来前景预测,提出海外进口LNG项目是解决国内天然气供需矛盾的重要途径之一,而融资风险则是海外进口LNG项目中必须重点关注和解决的问题。 本文采用模糊层次综合评价法识别、评价广东LNG试点工程项目融资中存在的风险,通过建立模糊层次综合评价模型,对项目融资中各方面风险进行综合分析,判断风险对项目的影响程度,并按由重到轻的次序排列,最后提出项目融资风险的防范措施。 本文以广东LNG试点工程为例,运用国际上较为先进的模糊层次综合评价法等风险评价方法对LNG项目融资风险进行分析与研究,为今后我国的能源产业调整和降低、转移、规避LNG项目融资风险提供了一定的参考价值。 The reserves of Chinese Nature Gas is abundant, but currently the antinomy of local natural gas supply and demand is more outstanding, with anticipation, our country natural gas consume proportion will from currently not arrive 3/% to increase to 10/% in one-off energy consume total amount till 2010. Only depend on a local resources, it’s hard to satisfy market demands in time, quantity and distribute, well timed, just the right amount of and reasonable of importing the foreign natural gas is very necessary to be an complementarity of local resources. Our country government is establishing the medium long-term development of natural gas industry programming currently, to accelerate the natural gas investigate exploration, development and utilization, optimize the energy of structure and maintenance country energy safety. For ensure our country natural gas industry that can keep on a development, the total principle of natural gas industry development of government is 'base on domestic, import overseas, west to east, north to south, ocean gas for debarkation, nearby supply'. According to some data analysis, in 2010 our country will importing liquefied natural gas 19,000,000 tons, and this number will reach to 33,000,000 tons in 2015. This paper analyzes the present condition and estimate the future foreground in the international LNG market and the internal LNG market, consider that the abroad import LNG item is one of the important paths that can solve the problem of natural gas supply and demand antinomy, but financing risks must be particularly pay more attention and solve in the abroad import LNG item. This paper identify and evaluate the risks of Item Financing in Guangdong Liquefied Natural Gas Test Project according to use the blurry layer integrative evaluation method, evaluate the every risks of item financing generally according to establish the blurry layer integrative evaluate model, judge the risks influence degree upon the item, and arrange these risks from important to secondary,

关 键 词： 液化天然气 项目融资 风险研究

领　　域： [经济管理]