导　　师： 崔毅;吴小灵

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 通过对广州市河涌整治项目基本情况的阐述,结合河涌整治水利工程的工程建设特点,从业主方的角度出发,对工程建设中各阶段业主方的风险存在的可能性作出了辨识,并对风险管理理论进行了论述,再结合河涌整治工程项目的具体情况和风险管理一般模型的特点,提出了河涌整治风险管理优化模型,对河涌整治项目风险管理过程的运用有着一定的参考价值;对河涌整治项目各阶段的实际情况认真分析,结合风险识别的理论和识别方法,对河涌整治工程项目的风险分类作出了清单的列表,并建立风险目录摘要,为河涌整治项目的风险管理的分析,提供了必要的风险细分要素,有利于业主方对河涌整治的风险有着一定的系统性,科学性的了解和认识。 通过对河涌整治项目业主方风险的分析辨识和衡量,初步了解风险的严重程度,对风险的分析方法进行了论述;结合河涌整治的工程特点,提出了适合这一类项目的风险分析流程图,对河涌整治工程项目中影响业主方目标的各种不确定性以定性和定量的方法进行分析和处理,以确定各风险因素对项目目标实际影响的大小,并在其基础上对风险的重要性程度做出判断。 业主方在识别和分析了河涌整治工程项目的风险之后,就要对所面临的风险问题寻求有效的,科学的方法进行防范和处理。通过结合河涌整治这个水利工程项目的特点,提出科学的风险管理工具的运用和有效的应对风险的措施,避免工程项目的风险或将项目的过程中的风险减少到最低的程度,使河涌整治的工程项目能达到预期的经济效益和社会效益。 最后结合具体的实际案例,进行实证研究,以其论述河涌整治这一水利工程项目的风险管理的过程,提出针对这一工程项目的管理途径和科学管理模型,以提高对项目风险的控制力和实际操作能力。 By analyzing the renovation of the inland rivers in Guangzhou and the characteristics of hydraulic project construction, on the owners’side, the possibility of risks from various stages of the construction and the thoery of management risks are discussed; by analyzing the specific circumstances of the projects and the characteristics of the general model of management risks, an optimized model of rivers renovation and management risks are proposed,which has a certain reference value to the application of rivers renovation and management risks;by analyzing the actual situation of the various stages of the rivers renovation, combining with the theory and methods of risk identification, a list of risks classification and a summary catalog of risks has been given, which provides the necessary elements of the management risks and is useful for all the owners to realize and understand the risks of the rivers renovation systematically and scientifically. By identifying and measuring the risks to the owners, an initial understanding of risks severity and the methods of risks analysis are discussed; by analyzing the characteristics of the rivers renovation projects, an analysis chart of risks which suits for this type of projects is proposed; in order to define the actual effect of the risks to the projects and make a judgement on the importance of the risks, a qualitative and quantitative analysis is based on the uncertain factors which affect the owners’objectives. It is necessary for the owners to search for an effective and scientific method of prevention and treatment after they realize and analyse the risks of the rivers renovation projects. With the characteristics of hydraulic engineering construction, scientific application of risks management tools and effective measures to deal with risks should be found out. Try to avoid risks or reduce risks to the lowest level, making the renovation projects to achieve the desired economic and social benefits. Lastly, some specific examples will be given to illustrate the procedure of management risks of the rivers renovation projects. Scientific management and management model is advanced to enhance the control over project risks and operational capabilities.

关 键 词： 河涌整治 业主方风险 风险管理

分 类 号： [F426.91]

领　　域： [经济管理]