导　　师： 张昱

学科专业： 020105

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 本文采用1995-2006年中国贸易条件指数,首先通过理论分析和实证分析的方法,对我国入世前后整体和分类商品的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件的变化趋势进行分析,接着通过H-P滤波法对价格贸易条件的变动进行分解,并通过波动性标准差的计算对价格贸易条件的波动性进行分析,然后对我国价格贸易条件的影响因素进行实证分析,并通过借鉴Baxter/(2000/)等人提出的贸易条件分解模型对价格贸易条件的波动性进行分解分析,最后总结结论并提出政策建议。结论如下: 一、入世前后我国整体商品的贸易条件和绝大部分种类的商品贸易条件是下降的,整体商品的贸易条件在入世后下降更为明显。二、我国收入贸易条件呈现改善趋势,主要是由入世以来我国出口数量的增加带来的。三、入世后我国整体贸易条件的波动性和大部分分类商品的波动性大于入世前,且入世后的贸易条件出现明显下降的分类商品,其入世后的波动性也比入世前较大。四、我国贸易条件与经济增长,外商直接投资额和出口数量指数存在一定的均衡关系。五、我国价格贸易条件波动性的变化主要受“国别价格效应”的影响,同时SITC3类即矿物原料类商品贸易条件的波动对我国贸易条件波动性的影响比较大。 在此基础上,本文提出了改善我国价格贸易条件的政策建议,主要从改善出口商品结构、引导外资流入和规避恶性价格竞争入手。 Using the terms of trade index of china from 1995 to 2006 and the method of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, analyze the change trend of price terms of trade and income terms of trade of the whole goods and the classified goods before and after China's access to WTO. And then through the method of HP filter method and the calculation of standard deviation of the volatility of price terms of trade, analyze the volatility of price terms of trade. Then carry out empirical analysis of influencing factors price terms of trade and learn the terms of trade decomposition model from Baxter /(2000/) and others to analyze the volatility of price terms of trade finally, summarize of conclusions and put forward policy recommendations. Conclusions were as follows: First, terms of trade as a whole and that of most types of merchandise is declining, the overall terms of trade of goods falls even more clearly after the entry into WTO. Second, the income terms of trade of our country was improved mainly by the increase in export quantity after our country's accession to the WTO. Third, After China's accession to WTO, the volatility of overall terms of trade and that of most is greater than that before the accession to WTO, and the volatility of the classified goods of which the terms of trade declines apparently after China joins WTO is also larger than that before the accession to WTO. Forth, there is equilibrium relationship among the terms of trade of our country and economic growth, FDI and export quantity index; Fifth, the volatility our terms of trade is mainly affected by 'country price effect', and the impact of the volatility of the terms of trade ofSITC3 category merchandise/( mineral raw materials/) on China's terms of trade is relatively large. On this basis, this paper improves policy recommendations to the terms of trade of our country, including improving the structure of export commodities, and guiding foreign capital inflows and circumventing vicious price competition.

关 键 词： 贸易条件 变化 波动性 入世

分 类 号： [F752 F743]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]