导　　师： 张方方

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动的规模不断膨胀,流动性不断增强,这对世界经济的发展已经产生并将继续产生重要的影响。对于资本流动政策的研究,已有部分学者做出了很多成果。本文主要站在宏观的角度,研究面对国际资本流动的新趋势,如何在有效地利用国际资本以发展本国经济的同时有效避免资本巨额而频繁的流动对我国经济和金融带来的不稳定因素。 作者首先从膨胀的全球资本流动这一目前的趋势出发,简要分析了资本流动对经济尤其是资本流入国经济的影响,并就论题相关研究进行了综述。相关的数据和走势图反映了我国近年来资本流动的特点,即我国的FDI保持稳定增长的同时非FDI的流入非常不稳定,而我国作为FDI东道国的相对地位下降的同时作为跨国投资母国的地位在上升。根据我国资本流动的这些特点和发展形势可以预测出我困资本流动可能出现的新趋势,以及这些新趋势对我国经济可能带来的促进作用和风险。在回顾了我国的资本流动政策之后,作者分析了影响我国资本流动的政策性因素,并根据现有政策存在的问题提出其调整的必要性。最后,作者借鉴相应的国际经验和教训,从近期和中远期两个方面出发,在加强非FDI流动监管、注重对FDI的多方监管、放宽资本流出管制并进行引导和监管、增强人民币汇率弹性等方面以及探索中远期政策措施上,对我国资本流动政策的调整提出相应的建议。 The scale of the international capital flows has being expanding continuously since 1990s,and the liquidity has being also enhanced.This phenomenon has affected the global economy and it will bring important influences in the future.Many former researches about capital flows policy have existed.In the face of the new trends of international capital flows,how can we take use of the international capital to develop the domestic economy and to avoid unstable factors on economy and finance brought by the large-scale and frequent capital flows simultaneously? This problem is studied macroscopically in this paper. Beginning with the phenomenon of expanding international capital flows,the author analyzes the effects on economy especially on the inflow countries by capital flows.Then relative researches are summarized.Relative data and trend lines reflect the characters of capital flows in our country during these years.Our FDI increased stably while Non-FDI was unstable.At the same time,the status of being a host country of FDI decreased and that of being a home country of investment increased.The author predicts the possible new trends of capital flows in our country according to the new characters and developing situation.And the possible promotions and risks of the new trends are also analyzed.After reviewing the capital flows policies and their influnces on real capital flows in China,the author proposes the necessity of adjusting the current policies.At last, by referring to the international experiences and lessons,the author proposes relevant suggestions of adjusting our capital flows policies both from the short term,the medium and long term,especially on enhancing the supervision of Non-FDI flows,implementing multi-party supervision of FDI,ecouraging and supervising the capital outflows,and increasing the exchange rate elasticity of Renminbi in short term.

关 键 词： 金融开放 资本账户开放 非 资本流动政策

领　　域： [经济管理]