导　　师： 徐刚

学科专业： 070501

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 西南大学

摘　　要： 本文针对地质灾害研究中的核心问题——灾害危险性评价,以北碚区滑坡地质灾害为例,构建了一个以ArcGIS地理信息系统为平台,采用35m×35m的评价单元,利用非线性评价模型/(信息量模型/)和定量评价模型/(二元统计模型/),进行区域滑坡地质灾害危险性评价的过程。并取得了下列成果: 1.根据如下技术路线和工作流程:问题分析和资料收集——评价模型选择——指标体系建立——危险性评价数据库建设——GIS与数学模型结合进行危险性评价——危险性评价结果的确定和GIS显示——评价结果的合理性检验,完成了北碚区滑坡灾害的危险性评价,最终得到的危险性图与已有的滑坡分布吻合良好,验证了所选用模型及指标体系的合理性;此外,通过两种评价模型结果对比分析得知,在滑坡危险性评价中信息量模型略优于二元统计模型; 2.根据北碚区滑坡灾害的发生发育特点、影响因素等实际情况,并咨询相关专家、参考相关的文献,最终建立了坡度、坡向、相对高度、工程岩组、年均降雨量、建筑用地、工程岩组、到交通干线、地表水体、断层地裂缝的距离等9个因子组成危险性评价的指标体系,实践证明,该指标体系科学合理,简洁易操作; 3.得出北碚区滑坡灾害分布的一些规律性: /(1/)本区高危险、极高危险区的分布具有明显的条带性,主要沿本区的背斜低山山麓地带延伸; /(2/)本区两大暴雨中心/(缙云山、华蓥山/)及其周边区域是高危险、极高危险区的主要分布区,说明暴雨是诱发本区滑坡灾害的主要因素; 4.应用专家咨询、文献查阅等综合确定权重的方法,确定了评价中各个指标的权重,这种方法较纯经验的或纯数学的方法更为合理。 This paper focuses on the core problem of the research of geographical hazards, hazard assessment, taking geological hazards of landslide in Beibei as an example. In the process of researching, this paper constructs a workflow based on ArcGIS to have the hazard assessment of landslide. On the basis of mapping unit of 35m×35m the paper makes use of Nonlinear-model /(Information content model/) and Quantitative-model /(Two dimensional statistical model/) to have a hazard assessment of Landslide. The research in this paper makes the following achievements: 1. Based on the following routes and flow : data collection and problemanalysis------ evaluation Model Selection ------ establishment of aindex-system------building database of hazard assessment------GIS and mathematicalmodel combining analysis of hazard assessment ------confirmation of the results ofhazard assessment and GIS presentation------test of reasonableness of results. TheHazard Assessment about Landslide of Beibei was completed. Finally, the Hazard map is got by two kinds of models of hazard assessment after the analysis, we find, the results agree with the actual distribution of landslide, which proves that the index-system and assessment results are effective. And through comparative analysis of the results of two models, we know, in the evaluation about Landslide hazard, the information content model is better than two dimensional statistical model; 2. According to the characteristics and contributing factors of Landslide hazards in Beibei, and basing on the expert opinions, comprehensive literature search, we establish the index-system, which contains 9 factors, such as , aspect, slope, relative heights, the engineering rock-group, the interface of annual rainfall, building lot, the distance of thoroughfare ,fault and surface water, etc. It was proved by practice that the system is scientific, reasonable, laconic and operational; 3. The distribution of Landslide hazard has been educed: /(1/) There are obvious regularity of the h

关 键 词： 滑坡 危险性评价 信息量模型 二元统计模型 地理信息系统

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