导　　师： 李玉如

学科专业： 082303

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 上海海事大学

摘　　要： 随着我国国民经济的持续快速稳定发展,而原油价格又居高不下,我国对天然气的需求呈现出快速增长的态势。然而我国天然气产量难以满足日益增长的国内需求,巨大的供需缺口只能通过进口来弥补。我国的天然气进口主要依赖于海洋船舶运输和管道运输,这给我国液化天然气进口运输船队提供了发展契机。而良好船队的发展规划,对于航运公司保持竞争优势,并在激烈的市场中不断壮大实力有十分重要的意义。 正是基于此,本文在回顾前人关于船队规划方面的理论、研究方法及成果的基础上,对航运企业发展所需考虑的各种影响因素进行分析,根据我国液化天然气航运企业的发展策略提出本文的研究对象,即处于起步阶段的我国天然气运输公司船队。 在对世界液化天然气市场、船队、船型及港口等进行广泛深入的调查的基础上,对中国引进液化天然气项目的运输环节作以详细的分析和论证,对进口液化天然气的航线和港口进行分析,为航运企业的发展规划编制提供依据。通过定量与定性相结合的方法,预测未来我国液化天然气进口量,为航运企业的运量分析提供依据。 本文核心内容是在日益激烈的市场竞争环境中,给具体的液化天然气航运企业建立数学模型来研究船队逐年发展策略问题。该部分以一定的模型假设为前提,以采用购买新船和租船来扩大船队规模的我国液化天然气航运企业船队为研究对象,以规划期内船队总费用支出最小为优化目标建立动态规划模型,通过模型的求解得出最优的发展策略,即每年购买船舶、租用船舶的具体策略;以确保其在市场竞争中立于不败之地。最后根据我国某企业的具体情况,建立模型,采用LINGO软件编写程序,求出我国液化天然气某航运企业船队扩张规模和每一年的具体发展策略。 在众多关于液化 Because of the continuous development of economy and the shortage of crude oil, the Chinese import volume of Liquefied Natural Gas /(LNG/) has increased quickly. However, the production of Chinese natural gas cannot meet the domestic ever growing demand. Considering the requirement of economy development, the huge gap must be filled by the import. And most of the import natural gas is transported into China by sea and pipeline. This special demand of transportation, which comes from the LNG project all over the country, has created a very nice opportunity to the LNG shipping company. A good fleet deployment plan plays very important role for shipping company in keeping competitive advantage and going from strength to strength. On the basis of looking back the theory, research method and fruit of ship deployment, I summarize the environments and influencing factors to a shipping company development. And then the develop strategy of underway Chinese LNG shipping company is set up as the studying subject of this paper. To analyzing the market circumstances of development and ascertaining the developing scale of the shipping company, the paper focus in the world and Chinese LNG transportation market. After this the whole developing trend of LNG import by quantitative analysis method. Then the paper studies the history of world LNG shipping and the real condition of Chinese LNG shipping company. In referring the advanced experience of foreign LNG shipping company, the chance of development for Chinese shipping company has appeared and the company should deploy its own fleet. On the basis of analyzing the import routes and computing transportation volume, the LNG ship fleet size and real developing strategies are obtained by dynamic program method. The core of the thesis is to establish a mathematical modal in order to have researches on the strategy of the fleet's growth year by year. A hypothesis being the prerequisite and the object being China's LNG shipping fleets which enlarge their scale by purcha

关 键 词： 液化天然气运输 液化天然气船队 船队规划 动态规划

领　　域： [经济管理]