导　　师： 宋献中

学科专业： 120201

授予学位： 博士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 企业发生财务危机的原因有二:一是来自外在的总体环境因素:一是来自于企业内部的经营不善或非法行为。然而,企业最大的危机是源自内部的因素,外部因素大多只是导火线,诱发或激化企业内部累积的各种矛盾,进而使企业陷入危机。 本文利用66家在1999年至2004年之间转为全额交割股或下市的公司为研究对象,并以probit model建立实证模型,探讨可能影响正常上市公司发生财务危机之因素,包括财务变量、公司治理变量、风险指针以及产业变量,以及这些解释变量影响上市公司发生财务危机的机率之变化和其隐含的政策含义。本研究的重要结论包括 1、就风险指标来看,营运资金风险指标为影响上市公司成为全额交割股或是转为下市机率之重要指针。在非财务变量方面,董监事持股比率对于上市公司成为全额交割股或是转为下市的机率影响为一非线性的关系。董监事持股质押比率亦显着影响上市公司成为全额交割股或是转为下市的机率。就转投资而言,当转投资比率愈高,上市公司成为全额交割股或是转为下市的机率就愈低。就关联方交易而言,关联方交易愈多时,上市公司成为全额交割股或是转为下市的机率也就愈高。从财务变量来看,只有长期资金占固定资产比率具解释能力。就产业而言,相较于其它产业,食品业和电子业的上市公司发生财务危机的机率较高。 2、在14个产业中,食品业和电子业,在上市的公司中发生财务危机的平均机率均大于其它产业的上市公司发生危机的平均机率,而且此差距呈显着性。 3、以平均危机指针或就经营绩效的平均表现而言,观光业的表现最好,其次依序为水泥业、运输业、其它产业和塑料业,因为这5个产业的平均财务危机指标都低于全体样本的平均值。 4、在实证� Financial crisis has been a key issue in the economic system. Over the past years, there are a great deal of financial crises both in the developed and developing economic units all around the world. While some are of the opinion that capricious macroeconomic factors trigger the financial crises, many people are convinced that the main reason hinges on corporate performance. This study discusses the relationship between financial crisis and risk indicators on firm's performance, the structure of ownership and the related party transaction. Our samples are 66 publicly publishing companies that suffered financial crisis across fourteen industries and 168 normal companies, exclusive of OTC companies, in Taiwan. The data term that we use to select samples is since 1999 to 2004 with panel data and the statistic model is probit model. The empirical results are shown as follow:1、 Risk indicators on corporate performance, especially the risk indicator on operating capital, are significant factors in explaining the occurrence of financial crisis. The percentage of ownership hold by directors demonstrates a nonlinear relationship on financial crisis. Pledge ratio by board members has positive impact on financial crisis. The variables standing for the related party transaction both have positive impact on financial crisis.2、 In 14 industries, compared to other industries, firms in the Food industry and the Electronic industry are vulnerable to financial crisis in probability on average.3、 As far as the average crisis index or the average operation performance is concerned, Tourism industry has the lowest crisis index in average. In addition to Tourism industry, Cement industry, Transportation industry, Other industry and Plastic Indutry also have lower crisis indexes in average than other nine industries.4、 According to data in different year, it is found that financial crisis model with data one year before suffering financial crisis are better than one with data two year before suffering financial crisis in overal

关 键 词： 财务危机 风险指针 关联方交易 公司治理

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]