导　　师： 罗绍德

学科专业： 120201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 基于过去许多研究指出财务性因素系影响企业经营绩效之重要因素，而企业财务危机预警模式主要在评估企业经营绩效之良窳，然过去较少学者考虑公司非财务性因素所蕴含之预警信息，故本研究于建构企业财务危机预警模式之际，加入考量非财务性因素，欲了解非财务性因素是否为良好的预警指标，加入非财务性因素是否可以构建较佳之危机预警模式。 本研究以台湾地区十五家股票列为全额交割者为财务危机企业，三十家为对应正常企业，藉由Logit回归分析法，分别构建有无含有非财务性因素之危机预警模式，以验证所建构之假说并获致以下结论： 一、仅考虑财务性变数之财务危机预警模型 1．危机前一年之财务危机预警模型：以获利能力、短期偿债能力及营运能量具有显著性。 2．危机前二年之财务危机预警模型：短期偿债能力具有显著性。 3．危机前三年之财务危机预警模型：以获利与短期偿债能力及营运能量具有显著性。 二、加入公司监理变量所建构之财务危机预警模型 1．危机前一年之财务危机预警模型：以获利能力及营运能量具有显著性。 2．危机前二年之财务危机预警模型：以短期偿债能力、家族与董监特性及董监事个人财务杠杆之运用具有显著性。 3．危机前三年之财务危机预警模型：以获利与短期偿债能力、营运能量、成长性、家族与董监特性及董监事个人财务杠杆之运用具有显著性。 三、研究假说 1．在危机前三年至前二年间，家族与董监越能发挥公司监理效果，企业发生财务危机之机率越小。 2．在危机前三年间，并无充分证据支持大股东股权特性因素与企业财务危机� Previous studies showed that financial factor is one of the important elements that have great influence on corporate performance. Also, financial distress prediction model is mainly used to evaluate the condition of corporate performance. However, about the effects of non-financial factors on the propensity of financial distress. Therefore, this study considers about non-financial factor when establishing the financial distress model in order to realize whether non-financial factor is a good indicator of financial distress and whether non-financial factor makes the construction of financial distress model better accordingly. Using a matched pairs design, this study examines a sample of 15 distress firms along with 30 non-distress firms. Also, a logistic regression analysis is used to establish the financial distress model with and without non-financial factors respectively, in order to test the hypotheses developed by this study and to derive the conclusion. The findings of this study are as follows. Ⅰ、 Considers about financial factor when establishing the financial distress model. 1. One years before the failure: the profitability, the short-term solvency and the working ability are significantly. 2. Two years before the failure: the short-term solvency is significantly. 3. Three years before the failure: the profitability, the short-term solvency and the working ability are significantly. Ⅱ、 Considers about financial factor and non-financial factor when establishing the financial distress model. 1. One years before the failure: the profitability and working ability are significantly related with working ability. 2. Two years before the failure: the short-term solvency, the blockholders shareholding characteristic and the individual financial leverage of directors are significantly. 3. Three years before the failure: the profitability, the short-term solvency, work

关 键 词： 财务危机 财务危机预警模式 非财务因素 财务比率

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]