导　　师： 胡玉明

学科专业： 120201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 投资股市可以说是除存放定期存款以外，投资人另一个重要的理财管道。资本市场的稳定与健全发展，不仅可使得企业从中获取低成本的生产发展资金，以进行各种经济活动，促进一个国家或地区的经济成长；更可使一般投资人从中获得盈余分配的利得，来享受经济成长的果实。 本文主要是根据国内外盈余品质分析常用的指标，试着从台湾上市公司已公开的财务报表，评定其整体盈余品质的好坏，配合股票报酬率的分析，以佐证盈余品质的分析能否具有选股的能力；接着利用市盈率的指标，比较分析以历史盈余或预估盈余计算之市盈率，于投资选股决策的参考价值；再者结合盈余品质与市盈率的应用分析，来形成较佳的选股决策；最后依据盈余品质的好坏，调整可接受市盈率的倍数，以探讨盈余品质较好的企业，是否可拥有较高的市盈率，而盈余品质较差者，其市盈率是否应低于同业。 分析的结果得到以下几点结论：/(1/)在股市呈现多头走势的繁荣期及稳定成长的复苏期间，盈余品质较佳企业的组合投资报酬率最高，其次是盈余品质中等企业的组合，最差的是盈余品质较差企业的组合，显示盈余品质与股票投资报酬率间具有相关性。/(2/)以预估盈余数字计算的市盈率做为选股指标时，其合理性及精确性都是较历史盈余的市盈率为高，具有较高的利用价值，说明当期的盈余与当期的股价具有显著相关。/(3/)在结合盈余品质与市盈率指标后，发现在各期间不管是利用盈余品质指标、历史盈 余的市盈率或是预估盈余的市盈率指标去衡量，投资报酬 率表现最佳的，都是盈余品质较佳且预估的市盈率在20倍 以下的组合，且都优于整体的市场报酬率。在股市繁荣时， 可获� Another way for investors to manage financial affairs, besides fixed deposits, is to put their money in the stock market. The stability and improvement of capital market not only boost the economy of a nation or region but also make it possible for the firms to rise money with lower cost, while the common investors can take their yield. In this article, with the indexes, which are used in earning quality analysis, we first assess the earning character of Taiwan listed corporations as a whole by analyzing their financial statements. Then find what can the P//E ratio, obtained by calculating the historical earning or expected earning, do for making decision in investment. By analyzing the earning character and P//E ratio, we make the better choice of stocks. At last, adjust the acceptable P//E ratio according to the earning character in order to see if the firms with good earning character can have higher P//E ratio, conversely, lower P//E ratio. Then we come to conclusions: /(1/) In the bull market, the firms with best earning character can have highest P//E ratio, then follow the ordinary firms, while the firms with worst earning character is on the floor, which means the earning character is related to the yield of stocks. /(2/) The P//E ratio from estimated earning is more reasonable and precise than that from historical earning, which means the current earning has strong relevance with current stock price. /(3/) No matter which index is used, the earning character, the P//E ratio from estimated or historical earning, the one that has the highest yield is that with good earning character and less that 20 P//E ratio. Note that no matter what earning character the firm has, you should sell the stock when its P//E ratio rises up to 20. /(4/) After we lower their P//E ratio, the firms with bad earning character can gain excess yield in bull market, and it can reduce loss in bear market. Investor can earn excess yield from these firms only when the P//E ratio is low er than that of i

关 键 词： 盈余品质 市盈率 股票投资报酬率

领　　域： [经济管理]