导　　师： 周文慧

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 博士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 世界各大城市都在面临着越来越严重的交通拥挤问题。交通拥挤直接影响到人们的日常生活：延长人们的出行时间，影响经济的发展，加重环境污染，从而降低人们的生活质量。交通堵塞是城市交通基础设施不能满足社会各种交通需求的结果，而交通拥挤收费是一种有效调节交通供给与需求的手段。现今已有不少关于道路交通拥挤收费方案设计以及实现问题的研究，这些研究中举出了不少成功或失败的例子。本文主要通过介绍新加坡、伦敦和斯德哥尔摩等城市道路拥挤收费政策的实施案例，总结并分析国外道路拥挤收费系统的成功经验与教训，并根据这些经验构建了胡志明市实施道路拥挤收费的设想，以期对缓解胡志明市道路交通拥挤有所帮助。 接着，本文以胡志明市出行者行为为研究对象，结合出行者的行为和相关的社会现象，对出行者行为的整个过程以及影响出行者出行选择的因素进行分析，将出行者在出行时所考虑的各种因素归类成出行特征、出行者属性和交通方式的固有属性，通过调查确定私家车和公共交通工具的出行费用和出行时间，利用统计分析软件8？88进行10215110回归分析，通过显著性水平为0.05的检验，建立了出行方式效用10每I模型。模型表明，影响胡志明市民出行选择的因素有出行距离、私家车和公交车的出行成本差、拥挤费、私家车停车费、私家车和公交车的出行时间差、步行到公交车站时间。根据这一模型，本文计算出了出行者选择私家车和公共交通工具出行效用的差值，并指出，通过增加燃油费、停车费和拥挤费等提高出行费用的方法，能够降低出行者选择私家车出行的概率。 此外，本文根据交通流的速度-流量关系、价格与交通需求的关系，结合经典拥挤收费定价模型，提出了符合胡志明市的拥堵费定价模型。具体而言，本文运用当地的数据分别对四种常见的速度-密度模型的拟合情况进行对比分析，结果表明0池6的速度-密度模型比其它模型更能反映胡志明市的实际情况，因此本文以01^匕模型为基础提出了新的速度-密度模型。接着，本文根据01^匕拥堵费定价模型，实际出行路段长度以及出行者的时间价值，确定出拥挤费与预期道路速度的关系，推导了胡志明市交通拥挤收费定价公式。这一方案以速度-密度-流量关系为基础，以监测车流量为手段。特别地，本文据此提出了评价拥堵费绩效的方案，该方案只需要监测某一时段里道路上的车辆数，因此这比监测平均速度的方法简便得多。 最后，本文分析了城市道路交通中公共部门与民营企业的关系，并对各种投资方式的本质和应用效果进行了分析与总结，提出了胡志明市道路交通拥挤收费系统的投资管理策略。 Most big cities in the world have been facing increased traffic congestion which directly prolongs the travel time in vehicles, prevents the development of economic and worsens the environmental problem, thus decreasing the quality of life. Traffic congestion simply results from the mismatch between available traffic infrastructure and the demand of using vehicles, which is supposed to be well solved by the traffic congestion pricing. Previous researches have provided effective practical experiences from successes and failures in planning and implementing traffic congestion pricing. This paper mainly introduces the implementation of the congestion charge in some famous cities like Singapore, London and Stockholm /(Sweden/), and sums up the successful experience of implementing road congestion pricing system, on which the project of implementing road congestion pricing in Ho Chi Minh is built. Considering the travel character of travellers, attribute of travellers and the original attribute of transportation modes, this paper sets up a logistic model to investigate the travellers' behavior in Ho Chi Minh. Specifically, the significance levle used in this model is0.05. Through this model, it shows that the major factors affecting the behavior of traveller are travel distance, the difference of travel cost between cars and buses, the cost of congestion, the parking fee of cars, the difference of time between cars and buses, and the time for travellers to reach the bus stops on foot. Furthermore, the utility difference between travelling by cars and travelling by public transports is calculated in this model, and it indicates that by increasing the fuel fee, parking fee and congestion fee, less travellers would choose cars as their travell tool. According to the relationship between speed and traffic flow, the relationship between price and traffic demand and the classical congestion pricing models, this paper proposes a new congestion pricing model suitable for Ho Chi Minh. This process begins with using4well-known speed-density models to fit the data collected locally. The result shows that the Drake model is the best one to tell the relationship between traffic speed and traffic density in Ho Chi Minh. Then, based on the Drake model, this paper proposes a new speed-density model. Also with the information on the length of road and the time value of travellers, this paper finds out the relationship between traffic speed and the price of congestion and further gives a formula to calculate the congestion price based on this relationship. In particular, this paper also offers a method to test the performance of congestion pricing. This method can be done by counting the number of traffic in the road, so is much easier to implement compared to the one done by collecting the date on traffic speed. Finally, the paper makes analysis on the relationship between adiministrators of road and private corporations, as well as the mechanism and performance of each kind of way in investment. Based on this, this paper proposes some advice to implement the congestion pricing system in Ho Chi Minh.

关 键 词： 胡志明市 城市道路交通 交通出行 拥挤收费 出行方式选择

分 类 号： [F573.33 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]