导　　师： 田秋生

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 人民币国际化的一个重要衡量标准便是人民币结算在对外贸易中的比重，因此跨境人民币结算的发展意义重大。本文首先结合实际案例，分别概述跨境人民币结算中比较有代表性的汇率套利、利率套利以及汇利率组合套利的典型模式。 然后分析跨境人民币结算中套利行为的市场动因，认为：（1）跨境人民币结算政策特点为开展套利交易提供了实际操作的环境基础；（2）海外人民币市场的快速发展为开展跨境套利交易提供了产品技术基础；（3）在岸价格始终是离岸价格的基础，离岸价格围绕在岸价格上下波动，正是离岸人民币汇率自由市场中形成机制的内在原因，决定了离在岸汇率的差异；（4）除即期人民币兑换类产品外，离岸市场关于人民币远期汇率的衍生产品发展更加迅速，其即远期的价格差异，以及离在岸的差异，为开展套利组合提供了较为齐备的支持；（5）大量的人民币存款和尚处于起步阶段的货币、资本市场规模形成明显反差，这也直接决定了离岸人民币利率的水平与内地人民币利率水平间的价格和套利机会。 再分析了在人民币国际化的进程中，由于套利交易等产生的一些负的外溢性和其所带来的一些宏观金融风险：（1）跨境套利交易对人民币国际化进程的负面影响；（2）人民币跨境套利结算对国际收支失衡的影响；（3）人民币跨境套利结算对大宗商品价格的影响；（4）套利结算可能导致境外人民币资产“循环梗阻”；（5）套利交易对宏观金融调控和货币政策提出了挑战；（6）套利交易对宏观经济冲击影响的辩证思考。最后就具体政策制定提出六点建议。 RMB internationalization is an important measure of the proportion of RMB settlementin foreign trade, so the development of cross-border RMB settlement is of great significance.This paper combined with the actual case, outline is representative in the cross-border RMBexchange rate, interest rate arbitrage, and remit the typical interest rate arbitrage combinationmode. And then the analysis of market dynamics of arbitrage in cross-border RMB settlement,said that:/(1/) the cross-border RMB settlement policy provides a practical to carry out thecarry trade environment;/(2/) the rapid development of the offshore RMB market forcross-border arbitrage provides technical basis;/(3/) the onshore price is always the basis of fobprice, fob prices fluctuating around the onshore price, it is offshore RMB exchange rateformation mechanism in the free market, determines the differences from the onshore;/(4/) inaddition to the RMB products at sight, forward exchange rate of RMB offshore marketderivatives development more quickly, the forward price difference, and the differences fromonshore for arbitrage portfolio provides a relatively complete support;/(5/) a large amount ofRMB deposit monk in the initial stage of the money to clear contrast, capital market scale,which directly determines the level of the offshore RMB interest rate and the mainland yuanprice between interest rates and arbitrage opportunities. To analysis in the process of RMB internationalization, such as the carry trade producedsome negative spillover and its brings some of the macro financial risk:/(1/) the cross-borderarbitrage, the negative effect on the process of RMB internationalization;/(2/) the cross-borderarbitrage settlement influence on balance of payments imbalances;/(3/) the cross-borderarbitrage settlement influence on commodity prices;/(4/) arbitrage settlement may cause theoffshore assets 'circulation obstruction';/(5/) to carry on macro financial regulation andmonetary policy challenges;/(6/) to carry on the macroeconomic impact of dialectical thinking.The final work puts forward six Suggestions of specific policies.

关 键 词： 人民币结算 跨境套利 离岸人民币市场

分 类 号： [F832.6]

领　　域： [经济管理]