导　　师： 兰凤崇;杨荣山

学科专业： 080204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 全球汽车产业正处于转型升级的重要战略机遇期，新能源汽车已成为国际汽车产业发展的主要方向，发展新能源汽车产业链已成为我国汽车工业转型升级的战略取向。新能源汽车市场需求正逐步形成，企业着眼未来应加快布局抢占市场，发展新能源汽车已成为中国汽车企业发展的必由之路，我国迎来新能源汽车产业发展的重要战略机遇期。整车制造业属于投资建设周期长、技术与资本密集、高度依赖规模效应的国民经济核心工业产业之一，发展汽车产业必须立足长远规划，整车企业发展新能源汽车与发展常规内燃汽车有很多共通之处，但两者又有明显的区别，因此研究与之匹配的企业发展规划理论体系显得尤为重要。 本文系统地分析了我国新能源汽车产业政策环境，分析了全球新能源汽车产业发展现状并指出各项关键技术的发展趋势。在全球能源危机和环境保护问题日渐突出的国际大环境下，发展新能源汽车已成为国际汽车产业的发展方向，新一轮技术和产业竞争已揭开序幕。在我国，能源紧张和环境污染问题更加突出，加快培育和发展新能源汽车产业，已成为我国政府缓解能源、环境保护压力和加快汽车产业转型升级、培育新的增长点的战略举措。与传统车相比，在有财政补贴的情况下，新能源汽车价格与传统汽车基本持平或者略高，新能源汽车市场推广所需的充电设施和环境配套处于建设起步期，中国已初步具备新能源汽车市场高速发展所需的产业基础、市场土壤和政策环境。 本文以国内汽车市场销售历史数据、新能源汽车销售数据、人均GDP、国民收入、汽车工业投资额、城镇化率等国民经济数据作为模型的输入，分别应用了相关性分析、时间序列法、多元回归模型、指数平滑法建立数学模型体系对2014-2020年国内新能源汽车销量进行预测分析，预测未来7年国内新能源乘用车和商用车的年度销量。本文对全球新能源汽车市场推广商业模式进行了归纳总结和对比分析，总结出四种典型商业推广模式，即融资性租赁、经营性租赁、买方信贷、以租代购模式。 为建立整车企业新能源汽车发展规划理论体系，本文基于企业发展环境分析、市场需求预测、商业模式及企业战略定位分析，以稳步提升市场占有率为发展目标，从技术路线、公司战略、产品策略、商业模式、制造策略、关键零部件配套策略等维度进行系统分析，建立整车企业新能源汽车发展规划理论体系。建立起规划理论体系后，本文选取某整车企业为实例，应用本文建立的分析方法提出该企业2014-2020年新能源汽车发展规划方案，为企业明确公司战略定位、整合内部资源、培育供应链体系等实践行为提供理论支撑和参考。 The global auto industry is currently at the important strategic stage oftransformation and upgrading. New energy vehicles have become the main trend ininternational automobile industry. To develop the new energy auto industry chain hasbecome the oriented strategy of China's automobile industry’s transformation andupgrading. The market demand of new energy vehicles is gradually formed.Enterprises should focus on the future to speed up the layout to seize the marketshare. The development of new energy vehicles has become the sole way forChinese car companies, China will usher an important period of strategic opportunityin the development of new energy automotive industry. Vehicle manufacturing industryis one of the core national economic industries which is long-term invested andconstructed, technology and capital intensive and highly depending on industrial scale.The development of automobile industry must be based on long-term planning. Thereis a lot in common between the development of new energy vehicles and conventionalcars for vehicle enterprises, but the difference is obvious also. Therefore to study thematching theory system for enterprises’ development planning is particularlyimportant. The paper systematically analyzes the automobile industry policy environmentof new energy in China. The paper analyzed the current development of global newenergy automobile industry and pointed out the development trend of the keytechnology.The international environment in global energy crisis and environmentalprotectionhave become increasingly prominent, the development of new energyautomobileshas become the development direction of the international automobileindustry, a new round of technological and industrial competition has prelude. In ourcountry, energy shortage and environmental pollution problems become moreprominent, speeding up the cultivation and development of new energy automotiveindustry, which has become China's government to alleviate energy conservation, andenvironmental pressure. Those problems also speed up the transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry, which cultivates new growth point of thestrategic initiatives. Compared with the traditional car in fiscal subsidies, the price ofnew energy car and the traditional automobile is flat or slightly higher. The new energyautomotive marketing requiring charged infrastructure and supported environment isunder construction for the initial stage. Chinese has not only the initial conditions ofthe new energy vehicle market and the rapid development of the industry but also themarket for growed soil and foundation of policy environment. In this paper, the domestic auto market sales history data, new energyautomobile sales data, per capita GDP, national income, the automotive industryinvestment, urbanization rate and other economic data were used as the input of themodel, which were applied for the correlation analysis, time series analysis, multipleregression model, exponential smoothing method to establish the mathematicalmodel of system analysis to predict the sales domestic new energy vehicle2014-2020.This paper forecasted the next7years of domestic new energy passenger cars andcommercial vehicles annual sales. This article has carried on the analysis summaryand comparison of the global new energy automobile marketing business model,which summarizes four kinds of typical commercial promotion mode, namely financingleasing, operating leasing, buyer's credit, rent to buy on sb's behalf mode. In order to establish such a theory system, this article carried on analysis onenterprise development environment, market demand forecasting, business modeland corporating strategy orientation. With the aim to steadily improve the marketingshare, theoretical analysis were made to different dimensions, including technicalroutes, corporating strategies, product strategies, business model, manufacturingstrategies and key components supporting strategies. This article is to establish atheoretical system and provides a useful reference for new energy auto enterprise’sdevelopment planning. Based on the planning theory system and analyticalframework, this article established2014-2020new energy vehicles developmentplanning for an auto enterprise in order to provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for practicing in enterprises,including defining strategypositioning, integration of internal resources,breeding supplied chain and so on.

关 键 词： 新能源汽车 需求预测 公司战略 发展规划

分 类 号： [F426.471]

领　　域： [经济管理]