导　　师： 简兆权;罗宇东

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 电力作为基础能源产业，随着社会经济水平的发展，社会对电力供应的要求也日益提高。而随着居民对用电量以及供电可靠性要求的不断提高，必然伴随着大量的输变电设施投入建设。输变电项目的可行性研究和风险研究是电力生产规划的重要部分，对社会经济发展起着很重要的作用。 C市位于广州市东北部，随着当地经济的快速增长，用电需求随之激增。当期C市正面临着供电不足，用电紧张的趋势。HL项目正是为了缓解项目所在地区用电需求紧张的局面而进行规划设计的，通过项目的建设将有效提高当地的供电量以及供电可靠性，减轻当地电网压力，起到保证居民用电，促进当地经济发展的效果。项目投资决策前必须要对项目进行可行性研究，在项目技术是可行的前提条件下，还要对项目进行财务可行性研究，并进行响应的风险评估和应对措施分析。 本文针对C市现有环境，结合HL项目的建设设想，对HL输变电项目的投资估算、财务融资、财务收益进行了分析研究，通过敏感性分析评估了风险对项目建设的影响，并针对性地提出了防范对策。本文首先对HL输变电项目建设的所在地以及项目建设概况进行了分析，对项目的建设规模、建设时间和选址的合理性进行了分析。通过融资的角度，分析了项目的筹资比例，确定了项目筹资的方式和计划筹资年限。根据《输变电工程经济评价导则》，对项目的财务数据进行分析和计算。对项目的盈利能力、偿债能力进行了量化分析。通过计算得出项目的净现值为1131.88万元，项目的内部收益率为10.08/%，项目的投资回收期为10年。项目的资产负债率、利息备付率、偿债备付率也优于同行业项目的水平。然后通过对影响项目收益的因素进行了单因素敏感性分析以及多因素敏感性分析，对可能影响项目收益的关键性因素进行了评估，提供了一定的控制思路，以确保项目在财务上可行。 依据对过往输变电项目经验以及HL输变电项目的实际情况，对HL输变电项目的风险进行了评估、分类以及应对措施的分析。本文将HL输变电项目的风险依据来源划分为技术风险、管理风险和环境风险三类，对不同类型的风险在HL项目中实际发生的影响和应对措施进行了定性分析。 Power industry is the foundation to support industry, With the development ofsocio-economic level, the community power supply requirements are increasing.With theresidents’power reliability and power consumptionrequirements continues to increase, mustbe accompanied by a lot of investment in the construction of transmission facilities.Feasibility studies and risk research is an important part of the power transmission project.electricity production planning for social and economic development plays a very importantrole. The C city locate in northwest of Guangzhou. With the rapid growth of the localeconomy, along with the surge in demand for electricity. Now the C city is facing powershortage. The HL transmission project’s planning and design is in order to ease the tension ofpower shortage in the project area. Through the construction of the project will improve thelocal power supply and power supply reliability, reduce pressure on the local power grid. Playto ensure that residential electricity, the effect of promoting local economic development.Necessary to conduct a feasibility study on the project before the project investment decision,Technology is feasible in the project under the precondition, but also on project financialfeasibility studies, and the corresponding risk assessment and response analysis. According to the C city`s existing environment and HL project`s planning, Analysisproject`s estimated investment,financing plan, financial gains. Through the sensitivityanalysis to assess the impact of risk on construction projects, and puts forward thecountermeasures. Location and project profiles were analyzed projects, the construction scaleof the project, the construction of the rationality of the time and location were analyzed. Onthe project profitability, solvency conducted a quantitative analysis. Project NPV is￥11,318,800. Project Internal Rate of Return is10.88/%. Project playback is10years.Theproject’s asset-liability ratio, interest coverage ratio, debt service reserve ratio is also lowerthan the level in the same industry projects. Then the factors affecting project benefits wereunivariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis sensitivity analysis of the key factors that mayaffect the project benefits were assessed to provide a certain amount of control ideas to ensurethat the project financially viable. Based on past experience in power transmission project and the actual situation of HLPower Transmission Project，risk of HL Power Transmission Project were analyzed to assess,classify and response measures. This article is based on the source of HL power transmissionproject is divided into technical risk, management risk and environmental risk categories. Impacts and response measures for different types of risk in HL project actually happenedqualitative analysis.

关 键 词： 可行性研究 财务评价 风险分析

分 类 号： [F426.61 F406.7]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]