导　　师： 樊霞;周玉山

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 传统的汽车行业正面临产能过剩、一二线城市基础配套薄弱无法支撑汽车消费数量的增长、科技创新等诸多问题。近年来，中国政府借鉴国外经验，通过示范推广、财政补贴等方式逐步促进国内新能源汽车的发展。2012年7月，国务院正式发布了《节能与新能源汽车产业发展规划/(2012～2020年/)》，明确了我国汽车工业转型的主要战略取向。本文的广汽集团E车型项目研究，对其在新能源汽车生产项目方面的投资决策，对于公司未来的发展战略选择、产业转型升级，都有着重要的意义。 广汽E车型项目计划分两个阶段实施：第一阶段，2015年全年为项目建设期，因E车型是在原有的GA汽油车型基础上研发而成，其底盘、车身结构都是沿用原车型。冲压、焊接、涂装这三部分工序都不会变，可继续使用原来的厂房，投入新的总装线，或者可以对原有的生产线进行改造，即可达产。第二阶段，2016-2023年为项目经营期，通过科学合理的运转E车型项目将能带来营业收入。经营期内的收入，是根据已上市的各类竞品车型的销售数据进行分析比较，并使用产品生命周期理论，合理预计得出E车型产品在经营期内的产销量。本文对项目概况进行叙述分析，确定产品定价，对E车型项目的产销量、政府补贴、成本费用、内部折现率、利率等提出合理基本假设，利用各项数据和依据计算项目建设期和营运期的现金流，并结合财务理论编制一系列的财务报表。运用项目投资决策分析计算出项目投资收益率（ROI）为32.54/%；项目净现值（NPV）税前和税后分别为25628万元和15676万元，远大于零；内部收益率（IRR）税前和税后分别为32/%和27/%。接着进行E车型项目盈亏平衡分析，测算出项目初步可行；再选取影响E车型项目财务评价指标的基本变量，再采用定量分析方法对项目的不确定性和盈利能力进行测试；最后对可能面临的项目风险进行分析，给出建议提出防范措施。 本文的结论如下：E车型项目的机遇大于风险，大股东财务状况良好、能提供项目所需的充足资金支持，项目可预计的会有较好回报。因此，项目可以投资。但在项目建设运营过程中，应当严格控制成本、防范各种风险，为项目实施提供切实的保障。本项目可为广汽将来进一步扩展新能源汽车项目投资和营运提供决策参考。 The traditional auto industry overcapacity labor front, a foundation supporting the weaksecond-tier cities can't support the number of automobile consumption growth, technologicalinnovation and many other issues.In recent years, Chinese government learn from foreignexperience, and gradually promote the development of new energy vehicles throughdemonstration, financial subsidies and other means.In July2012, the State Council officiallyreleased the 'energy-saving and new energy auto motive industry development plan/(2012-2020/),' Clearly the main strategic orientation of China's automobile industryrestructuring.This article describes the Guangzhou Automobile Group E models project,research their decisions to invest in new energy automobile production projects, and strategicoptions for the future development of the company, industrial transformation and upgrading,are of great significance. GAC E models project implemented in two phases: the first phase, in2015for theproject throughout the year construction period, because E models are developed in theoriginal model based on GA gasoline from its chassis, body structures are to follow theoriginal models. Stamping, welding, painting these three do not become part of the process,you can continue to use the original plant, put into a new assembly line, or can transform theoriginal production line can be up to production. The second phase,2016-2023business yearproject period, through scientific and rational functioning E models project will bring revenue.Operating income during the period, the analysis and comparison of competing productsbased on various types of models have been listed on the sales data, and use of the product lifecycle theory, reasonably be expected to come to E models products production and sales inthe business period.This paper describes the project profiles were analyzed to determineproduct pricing, proposed projects for E models of production and sales, governmentsubsidies, costs, internal discount rate, interest rates and other basic assumption is reasonable,the use of the data and the basis for calculating the project construction period and operationcash flow period, and to prepare a series of financial statements combine the financial theory.The use of project investment decision analysis to calculate the return on investment /(ROI/)was32.54/%; project net present value /(NPV/) before tax and after tax were256.28millionYuan and156.76million Yuan, far greater than zero; Internal Rate of Return /(IRR/) Pre-taxand after-tax, respectively32/%and27/%.Followed by E models project breakeven analysis,preliminary estimates of the project viable; then select the variable E models affect the basicfinancial evaluation of the project, and then using quantitative analysis method of uncertainty and profitability of the project for testing; Finally, may face project risk analysis, givesrecommendations precautions. Conclusions are as follows: E models project opportunities outweigh the risks, the majorshareholder financial condition, able to provide adequate financial support required for theproject, the project can be expected there will be a better return. Therefore, the project caninvest. But in the course of project construction and operation, should strictly control costsand prevent various risks, provide effective protection for the project implementation. Theproject can provide a reference for the further expansion of GAC future investment in newenergy vehicle projects and operations.

关 键 词： 新能源汽车 投资决策 财务评价 风险分析

分 类 号： [F426.471]

领　　域： [经济管理]