导　　师： 姜永宏

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 1994年人民币汇率制度改革以来，我国外汇储备开始进入一个全新的增长时期，迄今为止经历了两个高速增长期和两个增长放缓期。2002年以来，我国外汇储备一直以超过30/%的速度快速增长，直至08年金融危机使得我国对外贸易减少，外汇储备的增速才有所放缓。高速度的增长带来的是巨额外汇储备的积累，不断地冲击着我国的货币供给，使得货币供给内生性不断增强进而影响货币政策的有效性。 本文从理论与实证两个角度对我国外汇储备对货币供应量的影响进行了论述。首先梳理了国外内已有的理论研究，对外汇储备与货币供应量之间的关系进行理论分析；然后从来源结构的角度分析了我国高额外汇储备的成因，并在此基础上重点论述了我国外汇储备对货币供给的影响机制和现状；接着运用协整理论、误差修正模型（ECM）等现代计量经济学方法，对我国2002年以来的数据进行了实证分析，实证结果表明我国外汇储备的变动确实会对货币供给的波动造成影响，且外汇储备与不同层次的货币供给之间都有着长期均衡的关系。鉴于近年来我国外汇储备超常增长，需要从优化外汇储备管理制度、降低外汇储备对货币供应量冲击等方面解决这一问题。 Since the1994reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, China's foreignexchange reserves began to enter a new period of fast growth. Up to now, it hasexperienced two rapid growth period and two slower growth period. Since2002,China's foreign exchange reserves has been growing up at a rate of more than30/%per year; until the2008financial crisis, this speed reduced a little due to the decline ofour foreign trade. High-speed growth brought the accumulation of huge foreignexchange reserves, which continue to impact on our country's monetary supply andenhance its endogencity thereby affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper discussed the impact of China's foreign exchange reserves on themonetary supply from theoretical and empirical perspectives. Firstly, the authorcombed the domestic and abroad existing theories on the relationship between foreignexchange reserves and monetary supply; next, analyzed the causes of high foreignexchange reserves from the perspective of the source structure, and on this basis, wefocuses on the impact mechanism and the current situation of our foreign exchangereserves on monetary supply; then we use the cointegration theory, error correctionmodel /(ECM/) and other modern econometric methods to do our empirical analysiswith China’s data since2002; empirical results showed that our country's foreignexchange reserves changes do have an impact on the monetary supply fluctuations,and foreign exchange reserves had a long-run equilibrium relationship with differentlevels of monetary supply. Given the extraordinary growth of China 's foreignexchange reserves in recent years, we need address this issue from the optimization ofthe management system of foreign exchange reserves and reducing the impact offoreign exchange reserves on monetary supply.

关 键 词： 外汇储备 货币供应量 增长 基础货币

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]