导　　师： 梅林海

学科专业： 020106

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 21世纪是海洋的世纪，随着“海洋热”的升温，海洋—经济—环境及其相关的一系列问题成为各国决策者和学者关注的焦点。渔业作为海洋产业的重要传统产业，其发展对农业、海洋产业及整个国民经济都具有重要意义。“十二五”广东省把“深蓝渔业”作为调整优化渔业产业结构的战略重点。本论文把“地理空间”引入区域渔业经济分析中，研究珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间集聚及其空间溢出效应。首先，选取渔业经济总产值指标对珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间集聚现象进行空间探索性分析；其次，分析珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间集聚及溢出效应的动力机制；最后，考虑珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间溢出效应并选取渔业固定资本投资、渔业劳动力、渔业科技技术、水产养殖面积和渔业产业结构等变量，通过OLS模型、SLM模型及SEM模型的对比，深入探讨珠江三角洲城市渔业经济增长的影响因素及产生差异的原因。通过上述研究，本论文主要有以下几点研究发现:（1）珠江三角洲城市渔业经济发展存在显著的空间集聚现象并且伴随着空间溢出效应。珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间相关性总体上呈现出随着临界距离的加大，空间差异也比较大的规律，而在时间上呈现出集聚程度日益增强的趋势。（2）通过局部空间自相关性分析，发现珠江三角洲城市间渔业经济发展存在着HH、LL、HL和LH四种类型的空间相互作用模式，其中形成的LL集聚区，很有可能让当地的渔业经济陷入“贫困陷阱”当中，深圳市、东莞市这些城市的低渔业经济增长速度逐渐影响到惠州市的渔业经济增长速度，惠州市的渔业经济增长速度也处于较慢的态势。（3）空间误差变量也是影响珠江三角洲城市渔业经济增长的一个重要因素。由渔业经济空间集聚产生的空间溢出效应对珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的增长有明显的带动作用。珠江三角洲城市渔业经济的空间溢出效应是通过各种因素的空间集聚体现出来的，各影响因素本身也具有很强的空间相关性。（4）珠江三角洲各城市间渔业经济发展存在着差异，而这种差异除了与空间集聚和空间溢出效应相关联外，还与受其影响的其他众多因素有关，其中渔业固定资本投资、渔业劳动力、水产养殖面积和渔业产业结构等因素与珠江三角洲城市间渔业经济显著正相关。 As we all know, the21st century is the century of the sea, and with the warmingof 'ocean heat', ocean-economic-environmental and related issues have become thefocus of policy makers and academics. Fishery is an important part of marine industry,and the development of it has great significance of agriculture, marine industry andthe national economic. In the period of “Twelve Five”, the “blue fishing” has been thestrategic focus of adjusting and optimizing the structure of fisheries. In this paper, inorder to study the spatial clustering and spatial spillover effects of fisheries economicin the Pearl River Delta cities, the “geospatial” has been introduced to the analysis ofregional fisheries economics. Firstly, in order to analysis the phenomena of spatialclustering about the fisheries economic in the Pearl River Delta cities, we selected theindicator of fisheries economic output and the mean of exploratory spatial dataanalysis /(ESDA/).Secondly, we researched the dynamic mechanism of the spatialclustering and spatial spillover effects. Lastly, we select the variables as fisheries fixedcapital investment, labor fisheries, fisheries technologies, aquaculture area and fisherystructure to make an empirical research about spatial effects, influences factors anddifferences. Thus, for promoting economic growth in fisheries, we can give a deepstudy about effects of the factor. Through these studies, we have several findings. First,the spatial distribution pattern of the development of the fisheries economic in thePearl River Delta cities has a significant spatial clustering phenomenon. On one hand,the spatial correlation of fisheries economics shows the law of “distance decay”. Onthe other hand, it shows the trend of the degree of concentration is increasing in thetime dimension. Second, with the analysis of local spatial autocorrelation, we foundthat there were four types of spatial interaction model in the development of fisherieseconomics in the Pearl River Delta cities. Among the four types, there was low-lowgathering area and this area was likely to fall into the “poverty trap”. The economicgrowth rate of fisheries in Shenzhen and Dongguan has gradually influenced Huizhou.The economic growth rate of fisheries in Huizhou trends to a low growth. Third, thespatial error variables are important factors for the fisheries economic growth. Thespatial spillover effects caused by the spatial clustering have a significant role inpromoting the growth of fisheries economics. The spatial spillover effects werereflected through space gathering and the factors themselves also have a strong spatialcorrelation. Four, the development of fisheries economics in the Pearl River Delta cities are different. Besides the factors of the spatial clustering and spatial spillovereffects have some influence, there are still some factors such as fisheries fixed capitalinvestment, labor fisheries, aquaculture and fisheries industry. They have a significantpositive correlation with the fisheries economics in the Pearl River Delta cities.

关 键 词： 渔业经济 空间集聚 空间溢出效应 探索性空间数据分析

分 类 号： [F326.4]

领　　域： [经济管理]