导　　师： 夏京文

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 贸易条件是衡量国际贸易交换比例的主要指标，即一国出口每单位商品所能换取的进口商品数量。 从20世纪50年代Prebisch和Singer提出“普雷维什—辛格”命题以来，很多经济学家开始关注对贸易条件的研究，发现发展中国家不论是出口初级产品还是出口制成品，其贸易条件都有恶化的趋势。学者们继而转向对影响贸易条件的因素探讨上，中国作为最大的发展中国家，成为研究的重点国家。 随着自由贸易和全球化趋势的蔓延，中国越来越多地参与到了国际分工的合作中，与世界上其他主要经济体之间建立了密切的经济贸易往来关系，对外依赖程度很高，又由于中国的出口贸易优势正在逐渐被其他发展中国家替代，本文欲从进口贸易政策的角度去探讨改善中国价格贸易条件的政策措施。 文章的具体研究思路是，首先对主要进口国的经济发展状况对中国价格贸易条件的影响作出理论阐述，分别从劳动生产率和人均国民收入两个方面探讨。实证方面，先测算出中国与主要进口国之间的双边价格贸易条件，然后搜集主要进口国的劳动生产率和人均国民收入两个自变量的数据来量化主要进口国的经济发展状况，建立面板数据模型，通过Hausman检验选择面板数据的固定效应模型，并对其进行面板回归分析，得出结果。 最后本文根据理论基础和实证分析结果，对改善中国价格贸易条件提出了具有针对性的政策建议。 The terms of trade is the main indicator to measure the exchange rate ofinternational trade, in which a country's export of each unit of goods can exchange forthe number of imported goods. From the proposition 'Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis' which proposed by Prebischand Singer in the1950s, most economists began to pay close attention to the study ofterms of trade. They found that whether developing countries export primary ormanufactured products, the trend of their terms of trade has deteriorated.Thenscholars turned to the study on factors that affect the terms of trade. China as thelargest developing country becomes the focus of the study country. With the spread of the free trade and globalization, China is increasinglyinvolved in the international division of labor cooperation, and established a closeeconomic and trade relationship with other major economies in the world. HoweverChinese degree of foreign-trade dependence is also very high. The top four majorimporting countries of China is also the first four major exporting countries. As wellas Chinese export trade advantages have gradually replaced by other developingcountries, this paper tries to discuss how to improve the net barter terms of trade fromthe perspective of import trade policies in China. The specific research ideas of this paper are as follows: Firstly,the paper from theangle of the theory analyses the influence of the net barter terms of trade caused byeconomic development of major importers of China containing the labor productivityand Gross National Income per capita. In the aspect of empirical research,this papercalculates the bilateral net barter terms of trade between China and other leadingimporting countries. Then it collects the data of the labor productivity and GrossNational Income per capita as independent variables to quantify the economicdevelopment of major importing countries. At last the paper builds the panel datamodel and though the Hausman test chooses fixed panel data model. And the resultsare obtained after the panel regression analysis of the model. At the end of the paper, based on the results of the theoretical foundation andempirical analysis, the targeted policy suggestions are put forward to improve Chinesenet barter terms of trade.

关 键 词： 价格贸易条件 劳动生产率 人均国民收入 面板数据 进口贸易

分 类 号： [F752 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]