导　　师： 傅京燕

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 严格的环境规制是否影响了我国污染密集型行业的出口竞争力？其对污染强度不同的污染密集型行业的影响是否一致呢？本文使用2001～2010年面板数据，在扩展的引力模型基础上，采用固定效应向量分解估计方法（FEVD），实证分析了环境规制对我国五类污染密集型商品出口贸易比较优势的影响。结果发现，严格的内生环境规制可以显著提升五类污染密集型行业的出口比较优势；但用环境规制强度（ERS）和CO2排放强度分别测量的外生环境规制对五类污染密集型行业出口比较优势的影响不完全一致，使用环境规制强度（ERS）指标时，严格的外生环境规制反而会提高非金属矿物制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业以及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业的出口贸易量；同时外生环境规制二次项显示，外生环境规制对造纸和纸制品业以及化学原料和制品加工业这两个行业商品出口的影响呈U型，而对其余三个污染密集型行业，外生环境规制对其商品出口的影响为倒U型，与前两个行业相反。因此，从长期来看，提高环境规制水平会降低本国污染密集型行业出口竞争力的担忧是不必要的，相反，适度的提高环境规制水平有利于污染密集型行业出口竞争力的形成。此外，本文在分析了传统污染物环境规制对出口竞争力影响的基础上，还就我国实施碳税对能源密集型行业商品出口竞争力的影响效应进行模拟分析，发现碳税对能源密集型行业商品出口竞争力有负作用。 Does stricter environmental regulation influence the export competitiveness ofpollution-intensive industries? For the pollution-intensive industries with different pollutionintensity, is the impact consistent? This paper, based on the gravity model and panel data duringthe period2001-2010, focuses on empirical analysis whether the implementation of morestringent regulations has indeed affected comparative advantages of five pollution-intensiveindustries’ exports, estimating with fixed effect vector decomposition /(FEVD/) method. Ourfindings show that: stringent endogenous environmental regulation can significantly enhancecomparative advantage of five pollution-intensive industries’ exports. But exogenousenvironmental regulation measured with the environmental regulation strength /(ERS/) and CO2emissions intensity has different effect on comparative advantage of five pollution-intensiveindustries’ exports. When the environmental regulation strength /(ERS/) is considered as anexogenous indicator of environmental regulation, stringent endogenous environmental regulationwill promote the export of non-metallic mineral manufactures, ferrous metal smelting and rollingprocessing industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. The squareterm of exogenous environmental regulation shows the relationship between exogenousenvironmental regulation and exports of paper and paper products industry and chemical rawmaterials and products processing industry is the shape of “U”, while for the remaining threepollution-intensive industries, the relationship is the shape of inverted “U”. Therefore, concernsthat improving the level of environmental regulation will reduce their export competitiveness ofpollution-intensive industries are unnecessary; on the contrary, moderate increasedenvironmental regulation is conducive to the formation of export competitiveness. In addition,on the basic of analyzing the impact of traditional pollutants environmental regulations on exportcompetitiveness, we also study how the implementation of a carbon tax affects exportcompetitiveness of energy-intensive industries, and found that there is a negative effect thatcarbon tax imposed on export competitiveness of energy-intensive industries.

关 键 词： 环境规制 碳税 污染密集型行业 出口贸易 引力模型

分 类 号： [F224 F205 F752.62]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]