导　　师： 周四清

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 随着世界经济的快速全球化发展，国际分工越来越细化，地区间的合作越来越紧密，贸易形式也越来越多样化，传统的贸易统计方法已经不能适应当今的国际贸易活动，从而不能真实地反映贸易实质。此时，用传统方法统计而得的数据就会失真，而根据这些数据所制定的贸易政策就会存在偏差。因此，贸易统计方法的改革势在必行。 本文主要以研究增加值贸易统计方法及其对相关贸易问题的影响为目的；以文献综述国际贸易统计体系变迁为理论背景，以经济全球化各表现对贸易统计方法的冲击为现实背景；在阐述增加值贸易统计具体模型的基础上结合世界投入产出数据库将1995年到2011年40个国家和地区的总出口按其增加值来源进行分解，并测算了中国1与美国2011年35个行业的增加值出口比，进而利用这些数据重新测量了我国在全球价值链中所处位置以及我国的对外贸易依存度。 本文研究结果表明：传统贸易统计方法对各国出口总额的衡量存在不同程度的夸大，且经济全球化背景下，这种夸大程度在不断提高；我国高技术类制造行业增加值出口比重较低且低于美国，低技术水平类制造业相对较高但仍低于美国，只有在农产品与初级产品制造业才显著高于美国；虽然我国在全球价值链中的参与度日渐提高，但仍处于低附加值环节，对外贸依存度并没有传统贸易统计数据反映的高但仍处于较高水平。 With the globalization of the world economy, the international specialization is increasinglyrefined, the inter-regional cooperation is increasingly closed and there are more and more tradeforms. All these challenge the traditional trade statistics system and make it unable to reflect thereal essence of international trade. When conventional trade statistics cannot reflect the essenceof trade, the trade data obtained by it will be distorted. And there will be a deviation of tradepolicies which enacted based on these distorted data. So it is imperative to reform the tradestatistical method. This paper mainly researches the value-added trade measurement and its impact on relatedtrade issues. Take the literature review of international trade statistical system changes as thetheoretical background and the impulse of economic globalization to trade statistical method forrealistic background. By integrating the model of value-added trade measurement and the WIODdatabase, this paper decomposes40economies’ total export from1995to2011according to thesources of value added and estimates35industries’ value added in export of China andUSA.And then use these data to measure China's location in global value chain and its foreigntrade dependence degree. The results showed that traditional trade statistical method exaggerate export of allcountries at different degree and under the background of economic globalization theexaggeration will get larger; in China value added in export of manufacturing industry isrelatively low and lower than the United States, only in agriculture and some primary productsmanufacturing industry, it is significantly higher than the United States; although ourparticipation in global value chain is rising, but still in the downstream of global value chain andforeign trade dependence degree is not so high as traditional trade statistics but still at a highlevel.

关 键 词： 经济全球化 国际贸易统计体系 增加值贸易统计方法

分 类 号： [F740.4]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]