导　　师： 张捷

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 本文主要研究从2008-2012年的中国对外直接投资现象及其贸易效应。以投资动机分类开展分析，并以42个东道国（或地区）匹配三大投资动机：资源寻求型、成本导向型和策略资产学习型，分别探讨不同动机（国别或地区）所对应的对外直接投资的三大贸易效应——贸易规模效应、贸易平衡效应和贸易结构效应。其中，贸易规模和贸易结构还区分出口和进口。通过对15种效应的汇总和再分析，总结出中国对外直接投资影响贸易的机制与规律。 基于Eaton和Tamura改进的引力模型，本研究结合中国国情整理出影响中国贸易规模、贸易差额和贸易结构的变量，构建三大贸易效应的计量回归模型。在Stata软件中通过对比静态面板混合估计、静态面板固定效应、静态面板随机效应、动态面板一阶差分广义矩估计法和动态面板系统广义矩估计法的回归结果的统计量特征，选择拟合较好的模型对各动机下的贸易效应进行测算。 回归结果表明：对外直接投资额与贸易额整体上互补且进出口结构都表现出降级。分动机而言，出口互补效应最明显的是成本导向型对外直接投资。进口规模效应上，成本导向型OFDI表现出进口互补效应而策略资产学习型OFDI属于进口替代效应，即在发达国家的投资促进了中国对外贸易平衡。贸易结构效应方面，对欠发达国家的投资促使中国出口贸易结构升级，而进口结构降级的主要影响来自成本导向型对外直接投资。 The paper studies on the development of China’s outward foreign direct investment/(OFDI/) from2008to2012and its trade effect. According to three investmentmotivations, namely resources-seeking, efficiency-seeking and strategicassets-seeking, which are manifested and matched by42investment destinations, thecorrespondent trade effects, including trade scale effects, trade balance effects andtrade structure effects, are discussed in order to summarize the mechanism throughwhich China’s OFDI has an influence on China’s foreign trade. In detail, there are15categories of trade effects, which are export scale effect ofresources-seeking OFDI, import scale effect of resources-seeking OFDI, tradebalance effect of resources-seeking OFDI, export structure effect ofresources-seeking OFDI, import structure effect of resources-seeking OFDI, exportscale effect of efficiency-seeking OFDI, import scale effect of efficiency-seekingOFDI, trade balance effect of efficiency-seeking OFDI, export structure effect ofefficiency-seeking OFDI, import structure effect of efficiency-seeking OFDI, exportscale effect of strategic assets-seeking OFDI, import scale effect of strategicassets-seeking OFDI, trade balance effect of strategic assets-seeking OFDI, exportstructure effect of strategic assets-seeking OFDI, import structure effect of strategicassets-seeking OFDI. In terms of research methodology, the design refers to Gravity Model modified byEaton and Tamura /(1994/), based on which with a combination of China’s condition,empirical models containing variables influential on China’s foreign trade scale,trade balance and trade structure are established to test the trade effects mentioned inthe previous paragraph. The regressions are processed in Stata11.0withcomparisons between Pooled OLS /(ordinary least squares/), Panel Data Fixed EffectsRegression, Panel Data Random Effects Regression, First Difference GMM/(Generalized Method of Moments/) and System GMM. The results show that China’s OFDI is export and import complementary which ismainly attributed to efficiency-seeking OFDI. In terms of trade balance, the generaleffect is not significant but strategic asset-seeking OFDI is healing the large tradebalance. Efficiency-seeking OFDI also contribute to the degrading export and importstructure. The estimation result above indicates that China is actively gettinginvolved into the new industrial transfer around the globe by taking over capital andtechnology intensive industry from developing countries while transferring lobarintensive industry to less developed regions such as ASEAN and Africa.

关 键 词： 中国 对外直接投资 投资动机 贸易 动态面板

分 类 号： [F224 F832.6 F752]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]