导　　师： 赵细康

学科专业： 020205

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东省社会科学院

摘　　要： 经济的快速增长以及化石能源的大量消耗，导致全球大气中温室气体浓度日渐升高，由此引发的全球气候异常成为直接威胁人类生存和发展的关键性环境问题。抑制碳排放成为世界各国共同和不可推卸的责任。 中国作为最大的发展中国家，目前正处于工业化、城市化高速发展阶段，能源大量消耗不可避免，加之我国存在“煤多、油少、气贫”的资源禀赋特点，高耗能、高排放式经济发展方式因此备受关注。2009年我国政府向世界明确承诺“到2020年实现单位GDP二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40/%-45/%”。节能减排、走低碳经济发展道路已成为我国经济发展的必然选择。广东作为我国经济和能源消耗大省，其碳排放状况对全国碳排放有着重要影响。2011年，国家发改委发布的《国家十二五温室气体减排方案》通知中，明确提出“十二五”期间广东单位GDP二氧化碳排放量要下降19.5/%，单位GDP能耗下降18/%，这是全国34个省市中要求最严格的碳减排任务。广东节能减排任重道远。 本文以现有国内外相关文献为基础，利用LMDI因素分解法，对影响广东碳排放变动的驱动因子进行实证研究，以期找出影响广东碳排放变动的内在原因，为推进广东节能减排低碳提供参考。首先，本文对1997-2011年广东省能源、经济及碳排放现状进行分析。然后，运用LMDI因子分解方法重点对广东省碳排放总量以及广东省工业内部30个高耗能行业的碳排放进行因素分解研究，定量测算了经济发展、能源结构、能源强度以及部门结构因素对广东碳排放量变动的影响。 研究显示，经济规模效应对碳排放变动贡献份额最大，起到了125.99/%的拉动作用；而能源强度的下降和能源消费结构的优化则对碳排放增长起到一定的抑制作用，贡献份额分别为-24.57/%和-1.42/%。此外，还发现工业内部重点耗能行业的快速发展是广东碳排放快速增长的主因。尽管近年来广东加大对资本技术密集型工业的技术扶持力度，但效率因素的抑制作用仍无法抵消高耗能工业急速扩张带来的反向拉动作用，导致了碳排放的快速增加。 最后，本文基于实证研究结果，就广东如何进一步有效推进节能减排低碳，分别从产业结构、能源消费结构以及能源利用效率等多个角度提出相应的碳减排措施和建议。 In recent years, the rapid growth of economy and the extensive consumption offossil energy lead to global greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide graduallyincreasing, which causes global climate warming. It seems no doubt that climatechange will put extremely serious impact on the survival and development of human.Therefore inhibiting the rapid growth of carbon emissions has become the inescapableresponsibility of all countries in the world. China, as a developing country, is currently in the rapid development stage of theindustrialization and urbanization. A lot of energy consumption is inevitable.Additionally, China is a country which is rich in coal, but short of oil and gas. Thehigh energy consumption and carbon emissions have captured more attentions.According to statistics, China has overtaken the United States as the largest carbonemissions country in the world. China is facing with the very serious environmentalproblem, as well as the pressure of carbon emission reduction applied by thedeveloped countries. Under the background, in2009China made a clear commitmentto the world:“by2020china’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will havedropped by40/%-45/%compared to that in2005.” Taking the low-carbon way ofenergy saving and emissions reduction has become an inevitable choice of China'seconomic development. As one of china’s biggest provinces in economy and energyconsumption, Guangdong’s carbon emissions have a significant impact on thenational carbon emissions. By the year2011, according to the National Developmentand Reform Commission, Guangdong’s emissions intensity of carbon dioxide and theenergy consumption per unit of GDP will have dropped by19.5/%and by18/%respectively during the period of the “twelfth five years plan”, which is the moststringent requirements all the provinces. Guangdong has a long way to go in theenergy-saving and emission reduction. Therefore, based on the existed papers on carbon emissions, using the LMDImethod, this paper discusses about the driving factors of Guangdong’s carbon emissions. Firstly, this paper made a detailed analysis about the characteristics of theGuangdong’s carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic development from1997to2011.secondly, this paper uses the LMDI model to quantitatively analyze thedriving effect of economic scales, energy intensity, energy consumption structures andindustrial structures on carbon emissions increment and the industrial carbonemissions in Guangdong from1997to2011. Empirical results demonstrates that the economic scales effect, whosecontribution ratio reaches125.99/%, played a dominant role in increasing carbonemissions; the effect of energy intensity and energy consumption structures were-24.57/%and-1.42/%respectively. In addition, the reason is that the rapid developmentof the key energy consuming industries, resulting in the growth of Guangdong carbonemissions. Although in recent years, the capital and technology intensive industrieshave a fast development in Guangdong, the inhibition effect of efficiency factor oncarbon emissions are still unable to offset the reverse of high energyconsuming industry rapid expansion. Finally, based on the results of empirical research, the paper proposes somemeasures and suggestions of carbon reduction in Guangdong.

关 键 词： 碳排放 因素分解 能源强度 能源结构

分 类 号： [F124.5 X22 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [环境科学与工程] [经济管理]