导　　师： 王宇伟

学科专业： 1202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 南京大学

摘　　要： 商用车市场和工程机械市场经历了近10年的快速发展,市场的良好表现及乐观的预期将整个行业带入了投资扩张的快车道,整个行业呈金字塔式投资模式。特别是零部件行业,有明显的产能过剩的趋势。 过去零部件行业的投资是政策推动型的投资,被动型的投资,投资评估也多集中在财务评价。这种投资评估方法在过去适用,但现在柴油机行业发展快速且多变,使传统的投资评估方式不再适用,因为传统的评估方式会忽略有价值的投资机会和低估投资的风险。 新的投资环境下政策推动型的投资将转变为市场推动型投资。发掘投资机会和投资机会评估同等重要,发掘投资机会的过程是对行业和项目充分认识的过程,可以评价机遇和风险。项目评估阶段可以用多种指标进行评估,判定项目的选择是否正确。两者相辅相成,在新的市场环境下,可有效避免盲目过度投资,也只有将这两个过程充分结合,才能使项目更有价值,包括经济价值,机会价值和战略价值。 本文通过进行产业链分析,相关因素分析及PSETL分析,对投资环境进行评价；又进行细分市场研究,产品生命周期研究,还应用波特五力模型进行竞争关系研究；综合判定具有投资潜力的领域,并结合SWOT模型进行投资项目选择。 本文又以XX公司中重型锻钢曲轴项目为例,采用净现值法,内部收益率法,回收期法,实物期权法进行投资评估。论证行业以前投资评估存在风险低估的现象,在新的市场环境下,风险因素增加,有些项目需谨慎对待。在充分考虑市场因素后,非调质钢产品和柔性加工技术的项目可以适应市场的发展,降低项目的风险,具有投资的价值。 曲轴是发动机关键零部件,具有行业代表性。本文研究的投资机会发掘方法,和投资项目评估方法广泛适用于行业内零部件企业。 In the last10years, Commercial Vehicle Market and Construction Machinery Market went through fast development. The good performance of market, lead to quick expanding investment in this industry and in a pyramid style. Especially for the components industry, the trend of over capacity is obvious. The former investments in components industry is Policy-lead investment and passive investment. This kind of investment fit the former market, but currently, Diesel Engine Industry is developing fast, changing fast, and the convention investment method could not be used any more. The former investment style could neglect projects with value and underestimate project risk. Under the new market environment, Policy-lead investment is changing to Market-driven investment. Discovering Investment Opportunities is the same important as Investment Valuations. The process of discovering investment opportunity is the process to recognize the project and could find the risk and chance. Investment Valuations could use some indexes for evaluation, and judge whether the project us profitable. Discovering Investment and Investment Valuations are complementary to each other and should combine together, to find out the economy value, chance value and strategy value of the project, and also could avoid over investment. In this article, we discover the potential of investment by using industry chain analysis, correlative factor analysis, PSETL analysis, environment evaluation, segment market analysis, product life cycle research and use The Five-force Model for competence analysis. And at last, select the project by using SWOT model. This article takes XX Company's middle range and heavy duty forged crankshaft project for example, making the Investment Valuations by evaluating NPV, IRR, pay-back year and real option of this project. To prove underestimating of risk exist in project evaluation before. Under new environment, some risks are higher, and should be treaded seriously. Considering the new development of market, the project with Micro-Alloy steel product and flexible manufacturing process match the market development and with low risk, and could make value added for the company. Crankshaft is key component of engine and a typical product. The method of Discovering Investment and Investment Valuations in this article could be used for components industry widely.

关 键 词： 锻钢曲轴 产能过剩 市场变化 投资机会 投资评估

分 类 号： [F426.4]

领　　域： [经济管理]