导　　师： 王爱虎

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 博士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 现代物流业不仅是各产业部门经济增长方式转变的主要手段和途径，而且已成为国民经济发展的新的经济“增长点”。由于目前我国物流业仍处于初级阶段，物流成本高、物流交通基础设施配套性差及物流供需不平衡等问题严重制约了区域经济的发展，因此研究物流业与区域经济的协调发展问题有着极其重要的紧迫性。 论文在概述有关物流与经济发展相关文献的基础上，综合运用区域经济学、产业经济学、计量经济学和系统科学理论与方法，对物流业与区域经济协调发展问题进行了全面系统的研究，本文主要研究工作为： （1）从我国物流业发展总体情形出发，分析物流业发展历史及现状，对2011年省域物流业发展水平进行评价，并分析了1997-2011年物流业空间集聚及演化特征。研究表明：虽然我国物流业发展已取得了长足的进步，但物流业发展仍存在区域不平衡现象。物流业发展较好的省份主要集中在东南沿海地区，呈由东至西阶梯递减的趋势；物流业空间集聚特征明显，而且有不断增强的趋势。 （2）采用动态计量模型，分析物流业与经济增长间的联动效应，并构建物流业对经济增长影响的多变量空间计量模型，采用省份地区面板数据进行了实证分析。研究表明：物流业与经济增长保持着长期协整关系；物流业发展促进了经济增长，但对经济增长的促进作用还不显著；若不考虑空间因素影响，会高估物流业发展对区域经济增长的作用。 （3）基于省份地区的面板数据，采用空间面板杜宾模型分析现代物流业发展对产业结构合理化和高级化的影响。研究表明：省域区间产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在着显著为正的溢出效应；物流业的发展不仅促进了本地区产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化进程，而且也能够� Modern logistics industry is not only the main way that various industries changes itseconomic growth mode, but also has become a new economic growth spot of the nationaleconomy development. However, current logistics industry in China is still in initial stage,along with the prolems of high cost, poor infrastructure facilities, imbalance between supplyand demand. All of these seriously restrict the development of regional economic. Therefore,the research on coordinated development of the logistics industry and regional economics isvery urgent. The problem of coordinated development of logistics industry and regional economic hasbeen carried out by the method of regional economics, industrial economics, econometricsand system science theory based on the current research results.The main research of thispaper includes: /(1/) With the view of the general situation of China's logistics industry development, thepaper introduces the logistics industry development history and present situation. The regionaldevelopment level of logistics industry is evaluated in2011and the spatial concentrationdistribution and its evolution characteristics are analyzed. The results show that there is still aregional imbalance in the development of logistics industry, although the logistics industrydevelopment in our country has made great progress. The provinces of the better developmentof logistics industry are mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas presenting adecreasing ladder trend from eastern to western. Logistics industry agglomeration issignificant and has a rising trend. /(2/) Dynamic econometric model is applided to analyze the interactive between thelogistics industry development and economic growth. A multivariate spatial econometricmodel of logistics industry’s effect on economic growth is built. According to the regionalpanel data, the econometric model is analyzed empirically. Results show that there is along-term co-integration relationship between them. In the long run, the logistics industrypr

关 键 词： 物流业 区域经济 空间计量 复合系统 协调发展

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]