导　　师： 何明升

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 博士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 哈尔滨工业大学

摘　　要： 随着网络社会的崛起，作为现实社会“晴雨表”的网络舆情逐渐成为一种不可忽视的频发性社会现象。通过聚合民意，网络舆情能够形成强大的社会合力，并产生深刻的社会影响。在此背景下，研究网络舆情的发生发展规律，对网络舆情演化的动态过程进行系统分析，具有重要的现实意义。本文在梳理国内外相关研究成果的基础上，综合运用复杂网络分析、理论建模与计算机仿真等研究方法，通过对网络舆情演化过程中的个体行为和个体交互特征进行合理抽象，构建了复杂社会网络中的网络舆情演化模型，并对模型进行了深入的仿真分析。具体的研究工作主要从以下几方面展开并得出结论： 首先，根据社会动力学模型的建模范式，分析网络舆情演化模型三个方面的要素构成，提出网络舆情演化的交融-分阶结构。网络舆情演化是一个多主体协同的过程，以具有小世界性、幂律分布、异配性和富人俱乐部效应等拓扑特性的复杂社会网络相互连接的多样化行为主体借助弱连接的桥接作用、中心节点的辐射效应以及层级化的交互过程以自组织协同的方式推动了网络舆情的演进。网络舆情演化不是一个简单的单向线性过程，它具有复杂性和动态性，其中交织着网络空间中由各行为主体之间的交互所引发的网络舆情观点聚合和网络舆情信息扩散这样两个分支环节，它们相互融合、相互作用，以一种混合连接的形态形塑了网络舆情演化的结构秩序。这一部分的内容为网络舆情演化模型的构建奠定了理论基础。 其次，基于复杂社会网络理论和观点动力学模型的建模思想，构建了网络舆情演化中的观点聚合模型。在网络空间中，以一定网络结构连接起来的多样化行为主体围绕某一舆情事件形成的观点经历了紊乱无序到一致或相对一致的 Network public opinions are like prisms that well refracting rational social relationship in real life. With the rising of network society, network public opinions, the barometer of real society, is becoming a frequent social phenomenon that can’t be neglected. It can form significant scale effect and further generate deep-going social effect with gathering popular will. In this case, the study of its developing regular pattern and systematic analysis of its dynamic process have important reality meaning for ensuring social balance, preserving social stability and promoting social harmony. On the base of systematic sorting and summarizing related research results in and abroad, this paper apply means of complex network analysis, theoretical modeling and computer emulation comprehensively to abstract reasonably individual behaviors and interactive characteristics in the dynamic procedure. In this way, the dynamics model of network public opinions in complex social network is built and deep emulation analysis of the model is preceded. This study is based on the view of complex social network to recognize inner rule of network public opinions’ dynamics, and is mainly developed and getting result through the following aspects. Firstly, this paper defines the connotation of network public opinions’ dynamics through sorting related research results and presents the blend-sublevel structure of dynamics. It points out that the dynamics is not a simple one-way linear proceed and it’s complex and dynamic, instead. Within it there are two branch links as opinion gathering and message diffusion which are caused by behavioral agent’s interaction in the network space. The two links mix and affect mutually, building the dynamics’ structural order in the form of mix joint. In the view of social dynamic’s research paradigm, the macroscopic level as the rising of complex group and social phenomenon has great relationship with the microscopic level as the simple individual behavior. For this reason, this paper fur

关 键 词： 网络舆情 网络舆情演化 复杂社会网络 多主体协同 观点聚合 信息扩散

领　　域： [文化科学]