导　　师： 尚梅;刘桦

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 西安科技大学

摘　　要： 我国幅员辽阔，区域经济增长和能源资源禀赋差异显著，把握不同能源资源禀赋区经济增长与能源消费的关系，对于因地制宜制定具有地域特色的经济增长及节能减排政策具有一定的现实意义。本文通过文献分析及统计数据的初步测算，发现我国能源资源禀赋分布不均、能源资源禀赋对区域能源消费和经济增长的影响有显著差异。据此，提出不同能源资源禀赋地区能源消费对经济增长的作用存在差异这一假设，并通过实证分析对该假设进行了验证。首先，借鉴聚类分析技术，以1985-2011年全国28个省、市、自治区一次能源生产与消费比的均值作为聚类指标，将我国28个省、市、自治区聚类为能源资源富有型、自给型和匮乏型三类地区，发现随着地区能源资源禀赋的减少，其人均GDP逐步升高、单位GDP能耗逐渐减少。其次，以1985-2011年能源资源富有型、自给型和匮乏型三类地区能源消费、劳动力、资本积累和技术进步为自变量，以实际区域GDP为因变量，借鉴面板协整分析技术，发现三类地区能源消费、劳动投入、资本积累和技术进步均与经济增长存在长期均衡关系，且随着能源资源禀赋的增强，能源消费对经济增长的弹性系数逐渐减小，即能源资源匮乏型、自给型和富有型区域能源消费量每增加1/%，分别拉动经济增长0.43/%、0.41/%及0.15/%，也就是说随着能源资源禀赋的增加，能源消费对区域经济增长贡献的边际效应在减小；通过因果关系分析，发现能源资源富有型和自给型地区能源消费与经济增长互为格兰杰因，而能源资源匮乏型地区，经济增长是能源消费的单向格兰杰因。再次，运用动态面板数据模型，分析三类地区能源消费与经济增长的动态相关性，发现当期能源消费及滞后期经济增长都有促进当期经济增长的作用，而滞后期能源消费有抑制当期经济增长的作用，同时发现劳动投入、资本积累和技术进步都对经济增长有正效应，但三类地区各变量对经济增长的弹性有明显差异。最后，根据静态及动态实证分析结果，结合三类地区经济增长及能源消费现状，提出不同区域节约能源及保障经济增长的相关政策建议。 China is a huge-geographical country with the significant differences of its regionaleconomic growth and energy resource endowment. It has practical significance to formulateeconomic growth policies and energy saving policies with regional characteristics that weresearch the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption of differentenergy resource endowments regions. By anglicizing the literature and estimating thestatistics preliminarily, we found the uneven distribution of energy resources and thesignificant difference of that energy resource endowment affects on regional energyconsumption and economic growth, etc. Accordingly, the paper presents an assumption that indifferent energy resource endowments regional, effect of energy consumption to economicgrowth has difference. First, by cluster analysis techniques, based on the average of originalenergy production and consumption of1985~2011data of28provinces, municipalities andautonomous regions, we divide28provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions intoenergy resource-rich region, energy resource-self-supported region and energyresource-deficient region. The results show that along with decrease of energy resourceendowments, the Per capita GDP gradually increased and the energy consumption of Per GDPgradually reduced. Second, taken energy consumption, labor, capital accumulation andtechnological progress of energy resource-rich, resource-self-supported and resource-deficientregions as the input variables and real GDP as the output variable, using panel cointegration,we found that energy consumption, labor, capital accumulation, technological progress andeconomic growth have long-run equilibrium relationship in the three different regions andalong with increase of resource endowments, the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to economic growth is decreased. Energy consumption of energy resource-rich,resource-self-supported and resource-deficient regions increased by1/%will stimulateeconomic growth by0.43/%,0.41/%and0.15/%.This means the marginal effect energyconsumption to regional economic growth is reduced, along with increase of energy resourceendowments. Through the analysis of causality we found energy consumption and economicgrowth due to Granger for each other in energy resource-rich and resource-self-supportedregions, but in energy resource-deficient region, Economic growth is a result of energyconsumption. Third, using dynamic panel data model, we analysis the dynamic mechanism ofthe relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the three differentregions. The result shows that current energy consumption and previous economic growthpromotes current economic growth, but the previous energy consumption inhibits currenteconomic growth. At the same time, we found that technological progress has a positive effecton economic growth, but these positive effect are significant different in the three differentregions. Finally, according to results of a static and dynamic empirical analysis, with status ofenergy consumption and economic growth in three different energy resource endowmentregions，this paper put forward relevant policy suggestions from saving energy and keepingeconomic growth

关 键 词： 能源资源禀赋 能源消费 经济增长 聚类分析 面板协整 面板动态模型

分 类 号： [F127 F426.2]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]