导　　师： 刘刚

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东财经大学

摘　　要： 2007年美国房地产次贷危机引发的金融风暴席卷全球，美元自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后首度遭遇到前所未有的信任危机。从欧洲到拉美，再到亚洲，全球刮起一股“去美元化”的旋风，各国纷纷采取措施减少国际经济贸易和投资等领域对美元的依赖。全球性金融危机充分反映了美元本位隐含的矛盾和问题，有迹象表明美元本位正逐渐走向衰落。危机以后，一种新的世界秩序正在出现，其重心逐渐向中国倾斜，而人民币的国际化是其中的关键力量。近年来，人民币区域化的进程不断加速，人民币在东亚的地位日益凸显，东亚或已形成了人民币板块。 本文首先从美元霸权、货币替代、原罪论和浮动恐惧论四个方面对东亚美元本位进行理论分析；其次，深度剖析东亚美元本位走向衰落的缘由，以及东亚人民币板块崛起原因；然后，实证分析东亚人民币板块的状况。实证结果表明：第一，“人民币板块”正稳步崛起。从联动分析结果来看，韩元、林吉特、菲律宾比索、新加坡元、泰铢和台币与人民币汇率高度相关，并且它们之间也具有较高的相关度。从波动溢出效应分析结果来看，二次汇改后，人民币与韩元、菲律宾比索、台币和越南盾之间存在双向波动溢出效应；人民币对港币和新加坡元存在单向波动溢出效应。从东亚货币篮子权重分析结果来看，二次汇改后，剔除美元影响后的人民币汇率对港币、印尼盾、韩元、林吉特、新加坡元和台币影响显著；在不考虑美元影响的情况下，人民币汇率对9个东亚货币的影响均是显著的。第二，东亚仍旧是一个强势美元区。从东亚货币篮子中美元权重来看，美元仍占有绝对的优势地位，2008年全球性金融危机的爆发对美元在东亚的地位削弱有限。第三，人民币在东亚地位显著提升，东亚俨然已形成了美元、欧元和人民币“三足鼎立”之势。人民币对美元汇率已是东亚货币汇率的重要参考，可以预计的是，人民币在东亚将发挥更为重要的作用，甚至是发挥亚洲支柱货币作用。 最后，本文结合前人的研究成果以及当前的国际经济形势，对人民币区域化、国际化以及人民币参与区域货币金融合作提出相应的政策建议。 In2007the United States real estate sub-loan crisis triggered by the financial turmoilsweeping the globe. The dollar has suffered a crisis of confidence hitherto unknownsince the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. From Europe to Latin America, andAsia, the world becomes a "de-dollarization" whirlwind, countries have takenmeasures to reduce international economic trade and investment field dependence onthe dollar. The global financial crisis has fully reflected the contradiction and problemof dollar standard implicit, and there are signs that the dollar standard is graduallydecline. After the crisis, a new world order is emerging, and its focus gradually tiltedtowards China, while the internationalization of the RMB is one of the key strength.In recent years, accelerating the process of regionalization of RMB, the RMB hasbecome increasingly prominent position in East Asia, East Asia or has formed RMBbloc. Firstly, this paper from the dollar hegemony, currency substitution, original sin andthe fear of floating on the four aspects of the theoretical analysis of the East AsianDollar Standard. Second, the East Asian Dollar Standard depth analysis of the reasonfor the decline, and the reasons for the rise of East Asia RMB bloc. And then, examineempirical analysis of RMB bloc in East Asia. The empirical results show that: first, the status of RMB in East Asia has beensignificantly improved,"RMB bloc" is steadily rising. From the linkage analysisresults, the Korean won, the ringgit peso, Philippines, Singapore dollar, Thai baht andthe dollar and the RMB exchange rate are highly correlated, and has a high correlationbetween them. Volatility spillovers from the analysis results, after the secondexchange reform, two-way volatility spillover effects between RMB and the SouthKorean won, the Philippine peso, Taiwan dollar and the Vietnamese Dong. And RMBhas unidirectional volatility spillover effect for the HK dollar and Singapore dollar.From the East Asian currency basket weight analysis results, after the secondexchange reform, after excluding the impact of the RMB exchange rate against U.S.dollars, RMB significantly affects the Hong Kong dollar, rupiah, won, ringgit,Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar. Without considering the effect of the dollar'ssituation, the RMB exchange rate is significant to the9East Asian monetary effect. Second, the East is still a strong dollar zone. From the East Asian currency basketweights dollar, the dollar has an absolute dominance, while in2008the globalfinancial crisis in East Asia against the U.S. dollar weakening the position is limited.Third, Status of RMB in East Asia has been significantly improved, and East Asia hasalready formed the dollar, euro and RMB "a situation of tripartite confrontation"potential. The RMB to US dollar exchange rate is an important reference of EastAsian monetary exchange rate. It can be expected, the RMB will play a moreimportant role in East Asia, and even play the Asian pillar role of currency. Finally, combining the results of previous studies and the current internationaleconomic situation, the RMB regionalization, internationalization, and participation inregional monetary and financial cooperation, the article proposes some appropriatepolicy recommendations.

关 键 词： 汇率联动 人民币板块 东亚

分 类 号： [F823.1]

领　　域： [经济管理]