导　　师： 刘红红

学科专业： 020201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东财经大学

摘　　要： 本文由三部分组成，首先本文介绍了通货膨胀的定义及通货膨胀的衡量标准，在对比了相关衡量方法的基础上选择了CPI作为我国通货膨胀水平的代理变量。 第二部分的主要内容为国内外研究的相关文献综述及影响通货膨胀因素的理论分析。在理论分析部分，本文在结合我国的实际情况和前人的研究成果基础上探讨了宏观经济变量如利率、汇率、房地产、股票市场、产出缺口和超额货币对我国通货膨胀水平的影响。本文重点分析了通货膨胀下各因素的传导机理，即这些因素是如何影响我国通货膨胀水平的。在探讨传导机制的基础上，本文进一步探讨了各影响因素的变量形式。 最后一部分为本文的实证和结论、对策。本文的实证研究基于2001-2013年的宏观经济季度数据，本文首先对季度数据进行了X11的季节性处理，并对相关数据进行标准化和指数化。本文最后通过VAR模型下的脉冲响应、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验来描述通货膨胀的动态机制。结果表明通货膨胀的持久性、利率和房价是影响我国通货膨胀的主因。对策部分本文着重提出了改革现有财税体系、实行通货膨胀目标制等建议。 This paper consists of three parts, the first part describes the measure of inflation and howto define inflation. Compared with other measures of inflation indication, The CPI ischoosed to measure inflation, for the reason that CPI is the best indication. The review of relevant literature study and the theoretical analysis consist the second part.In this part, combined with the actual situation in our country and the conclusion whichother scholar had draw, we discuss the impact of macroeconomic variables such as interestrates、exchange rates、real estate、stock market and output gap on inflation of China. Thispaper also analyzes the factors under the conduction mechanism of inflation and how thesefactors affect the level of inflation. On the basis of analyzing the transmission mechanismof the factors, we further explores the various forms of variables. Finally, empirical study、conclusions and countermeasures were the third part. Empiricalstudy based on macroeconomic quarterly data between2001-2013years. The paper firstprocess quarter data by using X11, and make related data standardization and indexation.Finally, through the pulse response of VAR model, variance decomposition and Grangercausality test to describe the dynamics of inflation. The results show that the persistence ofinflation, interest rates and house prices are the main cause of inflation. Countermeasuresof this article highlighted launching taxation system reform, the implementation of inflationtargeting policy etc.

关 键 词： 通货膨胀 模型 协整分析 传导机制

分 类 号： [F822.5 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]