导　　师： 刘巍

学科专业： 020105

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 大萧条的爆发令古典经济学的分析模式受到严重的挑战，凯恩斯学派占据了主流。同时，货币学派、奥地利学派等经济学思想不断发展与之竞争。但是，很多非凯恩斯主义的观点在很长的一段时间内都是被边缘化的。新凯恩斯主义学者们的创新在很大程度上是在吸收这些曾被忽视思想的基础上得以发展的。虽然对大萧条的研究有了实质性的进展，但也不能说学界对大萧条的研究已经达到了极致了，也不能说对大萧条中的教训和经验都完全领悟了。本文沿着凯恩斯学派的脚步，从消费和收入分配的角度入手，尝试对大萧条爆发的原因进行探讨和解释。 凯恩斯学派主要从总量的角度来分析大萧条的爆发，基本没有涉及结构。本文尝试从消费结构的角度对大萧条进行探讨，并通过逻辑分析和数据统计的方法证明大萧条与美国当时收入分配之间的必然联系。首先，通过大量统计数据分析后发现，美国大萧条爆发前夕收入分配存在巨大的问题，且大部分的美国人并不满足边际收入递减规律，美国消费的减少有可能来自于收入分配的不公。随着这条思路，我们分析了美国1929年之前的消费数据，但我们发现，美国消费需求不仅没有出现颓势，反而出现了强劲的增长。通过对消费结构的分析，我们发现信贷消费的出现延迟了因收入分配上的问题而造成的生产能力和消费能力间的距离的扩大的问题。随后发生的股市崩溃产生了未来收入和就业的不确定性，这导致了耐用昂贵消费品支出的减少，信贷消费额急剧减少。生产能力和消费能力的差距回归到了真实的状态，美国大萧条开始爆发。本文的结论非常简单：美国大萧条的根源之一在于其糟糕的收入分配，信贷消费短期内能延迟消费不足带来的影响。但是，当股市的出现崩盘时，支撑信贷消费的信心消失，大萧条不可避免。 The outbreak of the great depression make the analysis model of the classicaleconomics under serious challenge,so the Keynesian occupy the mainstream.Meanwhile, the economic thoughts of monetarism and Austrian School has continuedto develop to compete with it. However, many non-Keynesian view have beenmarginalized for a long time. The innovation of the new Keynesian scholars is largelyon the basis of absorption these ideas which was ignored to develop. Although thestudy of the great depression had a substantial progress, but we can not say theacademic study of the Great Depression has reached the acem, and can not say wehave totally understudied the great depression’s lesson and experience. Along thesteps of Keynesian, this paper from the perspective of consumption and incomedistribution, to try to discuss and explain the cause of the outbreak of the greatdepression. Keynesian economics mainly from the amount’s perspective to analysisthe great depression’s outbreak, which basically did not cover the structure. This article attempts from the perspective of the consumption structure toexplore the Great Depression, and to prove the necessary connection between theUnited States and the current distribution of income through the method of logicalanalysis and statistical.Firstly, through the analysis of large amounts of statistical data,we found that there is a huge problem of income distribution before the greatdepression’s outbreak, and most Americans are not satisfied with the law ofdiminishing marginal income, so the reducing of American’s consumption may comefrom the the unfair income distribution. With this idea, we analysis American’sconsumption date before1992, but we find that the USA’s consumption demand notonly decline, but increase. Through analyze the consumption’s structure, we find thatthe occurrence of credit consumption delays the distensible problem of distancebetween the production and consumption capacity, which is caused by the incomedistribution problem. And then the collapse of the stock market caused the future’sincome and employment uncertainty, which result in the reduction of durable andexpensive goods spending and the dramatically decease of credit consumption. Thegap between production and consumption capacity return to the real state, then theUnited Status’s depression began to burst.So the article’s conclusion is very simple:One of the roots of America's great depression lies in its worst income distribution,and credit consumption can delay the effect of insufficient consumption for a short time. But when the stock market crash, supporting credit consumer confidencedisappear, so the depression is inevitable.

关 键 词： 收入分配 消费信贷 消费需求 美国大萧条 基尼系数

分 类 号： [F171.2 F091.3]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]